多周期应急资源调配主体冲突消解方法研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.2186

Abstract

Abstract:

Sudden natural disasters pose a great threat to social stability and economic development， and effective emergency response is an effective means to reduce the threat. As the core link of emergency response， emergency resource allocation is a complex system engineering with multi-subject participation and cooperation under the environment of time crunch， resource shortage and budget pressure， which inevitably leads to conflicts between subjects. Therefore， resolving the subject conflict in the emergency resource allocation system is the prerequisite to ensure the smooth development of resource allocation activities. Most of the existing studies focus on the resolution of the subject conflict of emergency response， and the methods of the resolution of the subject conflict of emergency resource allocation need to be further studied. Therefore， in order to solve the problem of subject conflict resolution in emergency resource allocation， based on the three-layer， two-stage multi-period emergency resource allocation model， the representation of resource allocation subjects and their conflicts is given， and the subject conflict measurement method is defined. Secondly， considering that the purpose of subject conflict resolution is to improve the efficiency of resource allocation， the mapping relationship between the resource allocation objectives， such as minimizing rescue cost， maximizing life-saving utility and optimal fairness， and the interest demands of multi-subjects is constructed， and the corresponding theorems are given and the positive correlation between the optimization of the above objectives and the subject conflict resolution is proved. On this basis， a multi-period and multi-objective dynamic programming model for subject conflict resolution is established. Thirdly， based on the idea of approximate dynamic programming， a rollout algorithm based on greedy stochastic adaptive search algorithm is designed to solve the model， which can optimize the objectives of emergency resource allocation and resolve subject conflicts. Finally， based on the background of a huge earthquake in a certain place， an example of post-earthquake emergency resource allocation is constructed through systematic investigation， analysis and summary of the data obtained from statistical bulletin， relevant documents of the Ministry of Emergency Management of the People’s Republic of China， disaster reports， satellite maps and references， and the scientificity and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by example analysis. The results of research show that the objective differences between subjects are the internal causes of subject conflicts， and the subject objective changes dynamically with the evolution of disaster scenarios in each period of resource allocation. The multi-period and multi-objective dynamic programming model built on the basis of the mapping relationship between the objective preference of resource allocation and the interest demands of multi-subjects can balance the objectives and demands of subjects in each period and multi-stages of resource allocation， achieve dynamic multi-subject consensus and optimal decision-making， effectively resolve the subject conflicts in the emergency resource allocation system， and in the process of resource allocation， the cost can be reasonably controlled， the life-saving utility and fairness can be taken into account， and the deprivation suffered by the victims can be significantly alleviated， which provides some reference for the further improvement of the theory and method of subject conflict resolution of emergency resource allocation.

Key words: emergency resource allocation, subject conflict resolution, multi-period dynamic programming, deprivation cost, rollout algorithm

CLC Number:

C934

Xuelong Chen,Zirui Wang,Miaomiao Li. Research on Agent Conflict Resolution Method for Multi-period Emergency Resource Allocation[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(3): 226-241.

Figures/Tables 12

转运点	受灾点	距离(千米)	受灾人口(人)	每周期资源供给(个)	每周期资源需求(个)
$t r 1$	$a a s 1$	143	34583	[2306,3076]	5764
	$a a s 2$	211	26916	[1795,2394]	4486
	$a a s 3$	119	36468	[2432,3242]	6078
	$a a s 4$	65	4388	[293,392]	732
$t r 2$	$a a s 1$	177	34583	[1153,1538]	5764
	$a a s 2$	135	26916	[898,1197]	4486
	$a a s 3$	36	36468	[1216,1621]	6078
	$a a s 4$	76	4388	[147,196]	732

day_1		day_2		day_3
参数	值	参数	值	参数	值
$h c$	7200万元	$h c$	7200万元	$h c$	7200万元
$h i t$	1500万元	$h i t$	1900万元	$h i t$	2800万元
$α$	0.05	$α$	0.05	$α$	0.05
$β a a s 1 t$	0.4	$β a a s 1 t$	1	$β a a s 1 t$	2.82
$β a a s 2 t$	0.5	$β a a s 2 t$	2.28	$β a a s 2 t$	1.21
$β a a s 3 t$	0.3	$β a a s 3 t$	1.05	$β a a s 3 t$	2.56
$β a a s 4 t$	0.2	$β a a s 4 t$	2.97	$β a a s 4 t$	1
$a$	2.04	$a$	2.04	$a$	2.04
$b$	0.24	$b$	0.24	$b$	0.24

主体	主体要素
指挥中心	$o b j c$	$h c$	$α$	$p r o c 0$
$c$	$m i n Z 1$	7200万元	0.05	-
转运点	$o b j i$	$p i 0$	$h i 0$	-
$t r 1$	$m a x Z 2$	6900	1500万元	-
$t r 2$	$m a x Z 2$	3500	1500万元	-
受灾点	$o b j j$	$d j 0$	$x i j 0$	$β j$
$a a s 1$	$m i n Z 3$	5000	-	0.4
$a a s 2$		4000	-	0.5
$a a s 3$		5500	-	0.3
$a a s 4$		500	-	0.2

受灾点	周期
受灾点	1		2		3		4		5		6
$a a s 1$	5000	0	900	0	5500	0	6100	0	6800	0	6900	0
$a a s 2$	1900	2100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	650	0
$a a s 3$	0	1400	6100	3700	2000	3900	1900	4100	1700	4300	1550	4500
$a a s 4$	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	周期
	7		8		9		10		11		12
$a a s 1$	1530	0	2901	0	2394	0	2995	0	3516	0	3953	0
$a a s 2$	3935	3520	6199	1910	7506	2638	8005	2090	6247	0	900	0
$a a s 3$	0	1680	0	3390	0	2762	0	3410	2042	5650	6878	5750
$a a s 4$	4035	0	600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	269	0
	周期
	13		14		15		16		17		18
$a a s 1$	12000	1691	9658	0	5833	0	6503	0	5918	0	6708	0
$a a s 2$	0	1520	0	4112	0	6196	0	5298	0	6789	6733	676
$a a s 3$	0	2204	2167	2188	6455	804	7332	1902	8777	711	3166	7000
$a a s 4$	0	585	1175	0	712	0	1165	0	1305	0	1309	0

参数	周期
参数	1	2	3	4	5	6
$Z 1$	2104356.64	2156713.52	2299885.49	2441979.20	2585809.78	2766265.95
$Z 2$	884000.00	1052000.00	1030000.00	1088000.00	1144000.00	1201000.00
$Z 3$	1.75	1.41	1.59	1.66	1.81	1.97
$γ (δ)$	0.00	118.48	315.17	1046.40	3474.18	11534.67
	周期
	7	8	9	10	11	12
$Z 1$	3144234.58	3176322.52	3691909.99	5840699.47	14113153.23	3648424.23
$Z 2$	6455070.00	5346203.00	10177600.00	8619000.00	8309400.00	10236200.00
$Z 3$	0.98	1.01	0.65	1.06	1.20	0.80
$γ (δ)$	173204.48	140341.59	591897.93	2498325.67	10544672.69	68215.38
	周期
	13	14	15	16	17	18
$Z 1$	3927405.33	5115115.71	9179115.55	26140616.26	96151970.94	104600618.80
$Z 2$	3176588.00	3029190.00	2939490.00	3368948.00	3432606.00	3713114.00
$Z 3$	0.68	0.61	0.51	0.49	0.25	0.00
$γ (δ)$	288020.91	1215648.64	5136881.23	21655897.04	91402954.03	99543819.65

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资源	标准号	标准名称	成本	单位
急救药品箱	-	-	160	元/个
方便食品	GB/T40772-2021	方便面卫生标准	5	元/袋
饮用水	GB5749-2022	饮用水卫生标准	3	元/升

冲突	周期
冲突	1	2	3	4	5	6
预算冲突	392.88	454.53	591.24	700.67	795.20	897.07
资源冲突	67.82	96.70	117.69	134.16	146.97	156.78
时间冲突	18.91	32.27	44.57	56.29	67.62	78.66
冲突程度	0.416	0.501	0.658	0.780	0.887	1.000
冲突	周期
冲突	7	8	9	10	11	12
预算冲突	437.89	293.23	223.63	205.86	135.94	101.04
资源冲突	158.37	167.82	169.90	169.46	167.21	165.08
时间冲突	18.91	18.91	18.91	18.91	18.91	18.91
冲突程度	0.350	0.326	0.286	0.275	0.231	0.208
冲突	周期
冲突	13	14	15	16	17	18
预算冲突	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
资源冲突	156.68	144.74	145.16	123.46	91.88	0.00
时间冲突	18.91	18.91	18.91	18.91	18.91	18.91
冲突程度	0.061	0.058	0.058	0.050	0.037	0.000

Research on Agent Conflict Resolution Method for Multi-period Emergency Resource Allocation

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