关键词: 应急管理, 供应中断风险, 营业中断保险, 低息贷款, 应对策略

Abstract:

Natural disasters， major social economic events， public security and other emergencies frequently lead to supply disruptions and spread along the supply chain， which cause huge economic losses to enterprises and even society. The government and enterprises should work together to face this challenge to consider effective coping strategies. Existing strategies to cope with the risk of disruption are divided into two main categories， including the enterprise's own coping strategies and help from third-party government organizations. Among them， business interruption insurance， as one of the enterprises' own coping strategies， has achieved better results in business practice. Besides， the insurance been applied by scholars to explore the supply interruption problem. Moreover， the other type of governmental organizations has also effectively helped enterprises to recover their production by adopting control mechanisms such as tax reductions， incentives and penalties， or loans， but there are relatively few research studies on the governmental policy of supply interruption. There is a lack of research on the role of purchasing business interruption insurance in conjunction with low-interest government loans in responding to supply disruptions. In addition， policymakers have increasingly focused on supply disruptions after the epidemic and have also stepped up their efforts to provide assistance to firms. Therefore， in order to improve the resilience of the supply chain， appropriate strategies coping with the risk of supply disruptions caused the uncertainty of output on the supply side should be developed.Based on this， the combination of purchasing business interruption insurance and government low-interest loans is considered to explore the following questions through comparative analyses： （1） What are the transaction prices， order quantities， and compensation amounts for insurance purchases， and the members' expected benefits under different strategies？ （2） What are the effects of different coping strategies on the relevant decisions and members' expected returns？ （3） How effective are the different strategies in coping with the risk of supply disruption？ What is the optimal coping strategy for each party？ Is it possible to realize a win-win situation under the same strategy？To solve the problems， four coping strategies are developed taking no measures， purchasing business interruption insurance， applying for low-interest loans， and hybrid measures （combinations of measures） to explore the strategy options under the risk of supply disruption. The expected profit model of the four strategies is constructed in the two-stage supply chain consisting of the supplier and the manufacturer， in which the supplier provides the products to the manufacturer based on the contract and considers whether to buy business interruption insurance or apply for a low-interest loan from government. Then， the optimal decision-making and the impact of the coping strategy choices on both supply chain members are analyzed. It is shown that the relationship among transaction price under different strategies is affected by the allocation ratio of loan， and low-interest loans can prompt the supplier to increase business interruption insurance compensation. Both low-interest loans or business interruption insurance can increase firms' expected profits， and the unit default payment and the low-interest loan rate will affect optimal strategy choice ed by. When the unit default fee is low and the government loan interest rate is high， or when the unit default fee is high， the coping strategy of purchasing business interruption insurance and applying for low-interest government loan at the same time can encourage manufacture to order more products， which is more conducive for both parties to obtain a higher expected profit and achieve a win-win situation. The results provide references for supply chain pricing， ordering decisions and coping strategy choices under supply disruptions risk and improve the ability of enterprises to cope with the risk of supply disruptions. It also provides theoretical support for the government's use of low-interest loan regulation policies to help enterprises resume production.

Key words: emergency management, the supply disruption risk, business interruption insurance, low-interest loan, response strategy