关键词: 应急状态, 出行焦虑, 销售保障投入, 物资供应, 线下线上双主体

Abstract:

In recent years， frequent emergencies—such as geopolitical conflicts， extreme weather， and pandemics—always expose consumers to vulnerabilities， hence then have heightened consumer concerns about travel for buying. The online community e-commerce platform can offer a support tool for relaxing travel safety anxiety. Therefore， such anxiety triggers a surge in online demand shifts and prompts retailers to invest in sales support. The sales support investment not only increases demand but also adds to costs. However， how consumer travel anxiety shapes the supply strategies of offline retailers and community e-commerce platforms， as well as the interplay between them， remains underexplored. This gap is addressed by examining optimal supply quantities and sales support investments for offline retailers and community e-commerce platforms under consumer travel anxiety， their interactions， and the impact of offline retailers’ digital transformation on equilibrium outcomes. In order to clarify this， a Cournot competition between an offline retailer and a community e-commerce platform is modeled， where both decide their supply quantities and sale support investments. The demand functions incorporate travel anxiety-driven demand shifts. A game-theoretic framework is employed to derive equilibrium strategies under varying sale support costs and travel anxiety levels. Numerical simulations validate analytical results， and case studies （e.g.， Shanghai’s pandemic response， JD Logistics’ smart supply chain） contextualize theoretical findings. A secondary model explores offline retailers’ digital transformation （e.g.， online order consolidation） and its impact on equilibriums. The key findings are obtained from the perspectives of supply structure dynamics， travel anxiety levels’ nonlinear impact， and synergistic complementarity between both firms， ect.. Specifically， （1） When sale support costs are low or high， both offline retailers and community e-commerce platforms coexist to supply living materials simultaneously （“dual-supply equilibrium”）. At moderate costs， only one entity supplies due to profit asymmetry. （2） Community e-commerce platforms consistently increase supply and sale support investments as travel anxiety rises. While offline retailers exhibit a U-shaped response： the supply quantity and sale support investments first rise （to attract local demand）， then fall （due to cost pressures）， and rebound post-transition to omnichannel models. （3） The demand surge caused by panic buying promotes both retailers to supply according to their maximum supply capacity， but will not change the supply structure equilibrium. Lower government price controls will also enable offline retailers or community e-commerce platforms to increase the supply of materials. （4） The sale support investment makes offline retailers and community e-commerce platform not only substitutes but also complements for each other， which depends on the competitive force and the sale support cost. Furthermore， in order to cushion against the surge of online demand， the offline retailer would undergo online transformation. Thus， with numerical examples， an extension is made about the supply strategies of omnichannel retailer and community e-commerce platform. The results demonstrate that the retailer’s online transformation decline the supply quantity in online channels， but enhance the supply quantity in offline channel， implying that the retailer’s online transformation may be beneficial if the offline potential demand is large enough. It reveals how to make supply strategies during emergencies with travel panic in this study， providing theoretical references for relevant businesses and departments.

Key words: Emergencies, travel anxiety, sale support investment, supply materials, online and offline retailers