主管：中国科学院
主办：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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中国管理科学

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考虑CCER交易的碳市场对中国经济-能源-环境综合影响研究：基于多主体建模分析

薛晓达, 刘畅, 李彦斌, 王愿, 李赟   

  1. 华北电力大学, 102206 中国
  • 收稿日期:2026-01-29 修回日期:2026-07-16 接受日期:2026-07-17
  • 通讯作者: 薛晓达
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(72404087); 河北省自然科学基金青年项目(G2024502011)

Assessing the Economy-Energy-Environment Impact of China's Carbon Market with CCER Trading: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

  1. , 102206, China
  • Received:2026-01-29 Revised:2026-07-16 Accepted:2026-07-17

摘要： 随着国家核证自愿减排量（Chinese Certified Emission Reduction，CCER）市场重启，中国碳市场体系进入强制减排与自愿机制协同发展的新阶段。在此背景下，科学评估不同政策设计方案的综合效益，对优化市场建设具有关键意义。本文集成多主体建模（Agent-Based Modeling，ABM）与Fuzzy-DEMATEL-ANP赋权的经济-能源-环境综合效益（Economic-Energy-Environment，3E）评价体系，模拟分析了纳入CCER机制背景下，配额分配、控制政策、市场范围等关键政策机制设计的影响。研究发现：（1）CCER抵销比例调整对宏观系统的边际影响有限，政策效果受碳价水平、技术改进成本等因素综合影响，不存在“一刀切”的绝对最优值（2）行业基线法虽短期抑制经济增长，但通过提升制度公平性实现更优综合效益；总量控制通过降低企业碳履约成本提升政策效能；（3）扩大控排企业纳入范围能够产生明显规模效应，而扩大CCER企业纳入范围则需平衡短期经济冲击与长期环境效益。本研究揭示了碳市场政策设计中存在的多重复杂效应，为中国碳市场的调控与机制优化提供理论依据和决策支持。

关键词: 自愿减排交易机制, 碳市场, 多主体建模, 仿真模拟, 3E评价体系

Abstract: The re-implementation of China’s Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) market marks a significant evolution in the nation’s carbon market system, transitioning towards a new phase of coordinated development between mandatory emission reduction mechanisms and voluntary mitigation initiatives. This progression underscores the critical need for a scientific assessment of the comprehensive benefits associated with different policy designs to optimize the overall market architecture. Therefore, this study develops a novel analytical framework that integrates agent-based modeling (ABM) with a comprehensive Economic-Energy-Environment (3E) evaluation system weighted by the Fuzzy- DEMATEL-ANP method. This integrated approach is employed to simulate and analyze the impacts of critical policy mechanisms, including allowance allocation approaches, control policy stringency, and market scope design, within the CCER integration framework. The findings reveal that: (1) Adjusting the CCER offset ratio has limited marginal impacts on the macro system, suggesting no universally optimal ratio; (2) The sectoral benchmark approach for the allowance allocation achieves superior comprehensive benefits by enhancing institutional fairness, despite causing short-term economic suppression, while absolute cap control strategy improves the cost efficiency; (3) Expanding the coverage of regulated enterprises generates significant scale effects, whereas the inclusion of CCER enterprises requires a careful balance between short-term economic impacts and long-term environmental gains. This research elucidates the complex and multi-dimensional effects inherent in carbon market policy design, thereby providing a robust theoretical foundation and actionable decision-making support for the precise regulation and mechanism optimization of China's carbon market.

Key words: China Certified Emission Reduction, Carbon Market, Agent-based Modeling (ABM), Simulation, 3E (Economy-Energy-Environment) Evaluation Framework