主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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考虑专家可信度风险的柔性语言自适应群体共识模型

田浩, 朱建军, 张世涛   

  1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 江苏 211106 中国
    安徽工业大学微电子与数据科学学院, 安徽 243032 中国
  • 收稿日期:2025-09-28 修回日期:2026-06-10 接受日期:2026-06-23
  • 通讯作者: 朱建军
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(72071106); 国家自然科学基金(72571135); 国家自然科学基金(72074001); 省级研究生学术创新项目(2024xscx066)

An Adaptive Flexible Linguistic Group Consensus Model Considering Experts' Credibility Risk

  1. , 211106, China
    , 243032, China
  • Received:2025-09-28 Revised:2026-06-10 Accepted:2026-06-23

摘要: 现有柔性语言群体决策方法在个性化语义建模、共识机制自适应以及专家可信度风险考量等方面仍存在不足,制约了共识达成的效率与可靠性。为此,本文提出一种考虑专家可信度风险的柔性语言自适应共识机制,从传统分段优化转向动态耦合的系统性协同。主要贡献为:(1)提出了主客观交叉验证的个性化语义建模方法,通过最小化主客观偏好偏差与最大化两者一致性直接优化柔性语言表达的语义,在避免信息损失的同时提升整体偏好的一致性;(2)设计了基于排序一致性偏离的可信度风险动态评价与权重自适应分配机制,实现了专家风险感知与决策权重的实时耦合,有效抑制高风险专家对共识的干扰;(3)构建了融合可信度风险追踪的自适应共识反馈机制,在共识迭代中同步更新偏好、风险与权重,从而实现共识效率与决策稳健性的协同提升。案例研究、灵敏度分析与对比实验验证了本文方法的有效性与可靠性。

关键词: 个性化语义, 共识, 可信度风险, 专家权重, 柔性语言表达

Abstract: Current flexible linguistic group decision-making methods still exhibit shortcomings in personalized individual semantic (PIS) modeling, adaptive consensus mechanisms, and the consideration of experts' credibility risks, which constrain the efficiency and reliability of consensus reaching process. To address these issues, this paper proposes an adaptive flexible linguistic consensus mechanism that incorporates experts' credibility risks, shifting from traditional segmented optimization to a dynamically coupled systemic coordination. The main contributions are: (1) A PIS modeling method based on subjective-objective cross‑validation is proposed, which directly optimizes the semantics of flexible linguistic expressions by minimizing the deviation between subjective and objective preferences while maximizing their consistency, thereby avoiding information loss and enhancing the overall preference consistency. (2) A dynamic credibility risk evaluation and adaptive weight allocation mechanism based on ranking consistency deviation is designed, which realizes real‑time coupling between risk perception and weights of experts, effectively suppressing the interference of high‑risk experts on consensus. (3) An adaptive consensus feedback mechanism integrating credibility risk tracking is constructed, which simultaneously updates preferences, risks, and weights during consensus iterations, thereby achieving a coordination improvement in consensus efficiency and decision robustness. Case studies, sensitivity analyses, and comparative experiments verify the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed method.

Key words: personalized individual semantic, consensus, credibility risk, expert weight, flexible linguistic expression