关键词: 电力企业项目选择, 投资决策, 低碳转型, 碳捕集与封存技术(CCS)

Abstract: Driven by the dual carbon goals, the power sector, as the largest source of carbon emissions, faces an urgent challenge in decarbonization. This study focuses on the strategic planning of low-carbon transitions within power companies, with a particular emphasis on optimizing power project portfolios. The central issue is how to select a portfolio of power projects that aligns with corporate resources, market trends, and policy directions, while balancing the application of low-carbon technologies to achieve both economic and environmental objectives. To address this, we introduce an optimization model for power project portfolio selection that comprehensively considers the application of low-carbon technologies. The model aims to maximize the total net present value (NPV) of a power project portfolio over a given period, while accounting for carbon emissions and potential carbon trading revenues or costs. The study uses real power project data from representative companies such as Huaneng Power International, Inc. and China National Nuclear Power Co.,Ltd., ensuring the model’s practical applicability and scientific validity. The data includes investment costs, operational and maintenance costs, fuel costs, and carbon emission intensities, which are crucial for the model’s accuracy. An improved Binary Jaya algorithm is employed to analyze the optimal combinations of various power generation technologies under four different low-carbon transition scenarios. The main findings indicate that in scenarios with higher carbon emission budgets (Scenarios 1 and 2), companies tend to prioritize non-fossil energy projects. Conversely, in scenarios with lower carbon emission budgets (Scenarios 3 and 4), Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology emerges as the primary choice for low-carbon transitions. As the CCS carbon capture rate increases, the integration of coal-fired power projects with CCS technology becomes more economically efficient. Adequate investment budgets significantly promote the shift towards non-fossil energy strategies. This research provides power companies with a scientific framework for optimizing project portfolio investment decisions and formulating effective low-carbon transition strategies. It also offers decision support for policymakers and provides practical guidance for the sustainable development of the power sector and the achievement of national carbon neutrality goals. The findings contribute to helping companies navigate the complex transformation of the power market and make informed investment decisions in line with carbon emission constraints and policy directives.

Key words: power enterprise project selection, investment decision, low-carbon transformation, carbon capture and storage (ccs) technology