关键词: 应急资源调配, 主体冲突消解, 多周期动态规划, 剥夺成本, 滚动算法

Abstract:

Sudden natural disasters pose a great threat to social stability and economic development， and effective emergency response is an effective means to reduce the threat. As the core link of emergency response， emergency resource allocation is a complex system engineering with multi-subject participation and cooperation under the environment of time crunch， resource shortage and budget pressure， which inevitably leads to conflicts between subjects. Therefore， resolving the subject conflict in the emergency resource allocation system is the prerequisite to ensure the smooth development of resource allocation activities. Most of the existing studies focus on the resolution of the subject conflict of emergency response， and the methods of the resolution of the subject conflict of emergency resource allocation need to be further studied. Therefore， in order to solve the problem of subject conflict resolution in emergency resource allocation， based on the three-layer， two-stage multi-period emergency resource allocation model， the representation of resource allocation subjects and their conflicts is given， and the subject conflict measurement method is defined. Secondly， considering that the purpose of subject conflict resolution is to improve the efficiency of resource allocation， the mapping relationship between the resource allocation objectives， such as minimizing rescue cost， maximizing life-saving utility and optimal fairness， and the interest demands of multi-subjects is constructed， and the corresponding theorems are given and the positive correlation between the optimization of the above objectives and the subject conflict resolution is proved. On this basis， a multi-period and multi-objective dynamic programming model for subject conflict resolution is established. Thirdly， based on the idea of approximate dynamic programming， a rollout algorithm based on greedy stochastic adaptive search algorithm is designed to solve the model， which can optimize the objectives of emergency resource allocation and resolve subject conflicts. Finally， based on the background of a huge earthquake in a certain place， an example of post-earthquake emergency resource allocation is constructed through systematic investigation， analysis and summary of the data obtained from statistical bulletin， relevant documents of the Ministry of Emergency Management of the People’s Republic of China， disaster reports， satellite maps and references， and the scientificity and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by example analysis. The results of research show that the objective differences between subjects are the internal causes of subject conflicts， and the subject objective changes dynamically with the evolution of disaster scenarios in each period of resource allocation. The multi-period and multi-objective dynamic programming model built on the basis of the mapping relationship between the objective preference of resource allocation and the interest demands of multi-subjects can balance the objectives and demands of subjects in each period and multi-stages of resource allocation， achieve dynamic multi-subject consensus and optimal decision-making， effectively resolve the subject conflicts in the emergency resource allocation system， and in the process of resource allocation， the cost can be reasonably controlled， the life-saving utility and fairness can be taken into account， and the deprivation suffered by the victims can be significantly alleviated， which provides some reference for the further improvement of the theory and method of subject conflict resolution of emergency resource allocation.

Key words: emergency resource allocation, subject conflict resolution, multi-period dynamic programming, deprivation cost, rollout algorithm