关键词: 宏观金融网络, CCA模型, 风险传染, 国家资产负债表

Abstract: In the context of deepening financial market connectedness, the possibility of financial risks being transformed into systemic risks is increasing. In order to clarify the risk transmission mechanism of macro-financial networks, this paper uses the CCA model to measure the balance sheet risks of macroeconomic departments, and also measures the financial risk indicators of provincial departments. Then, the network analysis method is used to construct the inter-departmental capital stock matrix to analyze the risk transmission mechanism of the macro-financial network, and measure the risk contagion effect between macroeconomic departments. The results show that the CCA model can comprehensively evaluate the risk status of macroeconomic departments, and has a certain forward-looking and early warning nature. Although the risk indicators of macroeconomic departments remain at normal levels, provincial indicators show that the probability of financial risks in the western region and northeast region is higher than that in the eastern and central regions. Besides, as the debt of government departments increases, the default risk of government departments in various regions also increases. In addition, by sorting out the risk contagion mechanism, it is showed that the financial sector is at the center of the macro-financial network, which is greatly affected by risk shocks, and risk contagion mechanism also showed that the losses, suffered by various departments, will accumulate layer by layer under the effect of risk contagion. The research results have an important enlightenment effect on adjusting the asset and liability structure of macroeconomic departments, preventing and resolving local risks from becoming systemic risks, as well as improving the overall soundness of China's macroeconomy.

Key words: macro-financial networks, CCA model, risk contagion mechanisms, national balance sheet