抢先还是等待？零售商引入新兴技术的时机与战略分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1209

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

零售行业常引入区块链、人工智能等新兴技术推动行业的创新和变革，技术提供商也着眼于满足零售商的特定需求和技术应用场景提供差异化技术解决方案。为此，本文构建了一个包含技术提供商和两个竞争性零售商的动态多阶段供应链模型，探究零售商的技术引入战略选择，并分析技术提供商的应对策略对零售商决策结果的影响，从而为零售商引入新兴技术的时机与战略给出建议。研究发现，较长的垄断时期跨度能够激发零售商对新兴技术抢先引入的动力，降低技术服务费将激励等待者提前进入市场，使其有动机转变战略选择同时与竞争对手引入新兴技术。技术服务费具有“管理杠杆”的作用，能够强化或弱化零售商的联盟关系。一定条件下，技术提供商提供均质化的技术服务能够同时满足抢先者和等待者的战略需求，三方实现互利共赢的局面，达到“帕累托最优状态”。此外，垄断时期跨度充当“时间杠杆”使得技术提供商在激励零售商选择不同战略的同时，实现自身利润最大化。

关键词: 零售商, 技术引入时机, 垄断时期跨度, 同质化技术服务

Abstract:

Emerging technology systems are having a broad and deep impact on the entire business community， and have also become a potential driving force for technology applications and technological innovation related to the retail industry. The retail industry often introduces emerging technologies such as blockchain and artificial intelligence to promote innovation and change in the industry， and technology providers also focus on providing differentiated technology solutions to meet the specific needs and technology application scenarios of retailers. However， not all enterprises are suitable for directly introducing new technologies， and adoption timing is crucial to the survival and development of enterprises. There are two important problems to solve：（1） Given the incentive to introduce emerging technologies， what strategies should competitive retailers choose to maximize their respective profits？ Are emerging technologies introduced at the same time as competitors or introduced sequentially？（2） When retailers introduce emerging technologies sequentially， due to the existence of differentiated technology solutions from technology providers， what technology supply strategies do retailers that introduce emerging technologies first and those that introduce them later expect technology providers to provide for them respectively？ A dynamic multi-stage supply chain model including technology provider and two competitive retailers is constructed， exploring the strategic choice of technology introduction for retailers and the impact of technology provider's coping strategies on retailers' decision-making results. It is found that a long period of monopoly period can stimulate retailers to introduce new technology， and lower the technical service fee will encourage the latter to enter the market ahead of time， it has an incentive to shift strategic choices and introduce emerging technologies together with competitors. The technical service fee acts as a "management lever" that can strengthen or weaken the retailer's alliance. Under certain conditions， the technology provider can satisfy the strategic needs of both the former and the latter. Moreover， the span of the monopoly period acts as a “Time lever” that enables technology providers to achieve their profit maximization while encouraging retailers to choose different strategies.

Key words: retailers, timing of technology introduction, monopoly period, homogeneous technical service

中图分类号:

F270

周正龙,简昕格,关旭, 等. 抢先还是等待？零售商引入新兴技术的时机与战略分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2026, 34(3): 286-296.

Zhenglong Zhou,Xinge Jian,Xu Guan, et al. Getting Ahead or Waiting? Strategies in Introducing Emerging Technology and Analysis of Adoption Timing for Retailers’[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(3): 286-296.

图/表 5

图1

表1

命题4中t1¯的取值确定"

$t 1 ¯ = m a x σ 1, σ 2, σ 3$
$t I$	$σ 1$	$σ 2$	$σ 3$
$0$	0.1448	0.1861	0.3303
0.1	0.1438	0.1834	0.3297
0.2	0.1410	0.1828	0.3293
0.3	0.1362	0.1840	0.3292
0.4	0.1295	0.1871	0.3292
0.5	0.1209	0.1918	0.3295
$t 1 ¯ = 0.3303,0.3303 < t I ≤ 0.5$

表1

图2

表2

命题4中t1¯、t1̲的取值确定"

$t 1 ¯ = m a x σ 1, σ 2, σ 3$ ， $t 1 ̲ = m i n σ 1, σ 2, σ 3$
$t I$	$σ 1$	$σ 2$	$σ 3$
0	0.0575	0.0732	0.1208
0.1	0.0574	0.0727	0.1206
0.2	0.0593	0.0743	0.1207
0.3	0.0630	0.0778	0.1100
0.4	0.0686	0.0832	0.1150
0.5 0.6 0.7	0.0759 0.0848 0.0952	0.0904 0.0991 0.1094	0.1222 0.1231 0.1242
$t 1 ¯ = 0.1242, t 1 ̲ = 0.0574$

表2

图3

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