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中国管理科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 139-149.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0764cstr: 32146.14.j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0764

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转口贸易、出海办厂还是维持现状?——加征关税下的国际供应链重构策略研究

曾能民1,2, 余乐安1,2,3()   

  1. 1.哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001
    2.大数据与商务智能技术工业和信息化部重点实验室(哈尔滨工程大学),黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001
    3.四川大学商学院,四川 成都 610065
  • 收稿日期:2023-05-08 修回日期:2024-01-20 出版日期:2026-08-25 发布日期:2026-07-14
  • 通讯作者: 余乐安 E-mail:yulean@amss.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(YQ2024G003);黑龙江省社会科学基金重点项目(25GLA001);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2021M7000989)

Re-export Trade, Setting up Factories Overseas or Bearing High Tariffs: Reconstruction Strategy for International Supply Chain under Tariff Increases

Nengmin Zeng1,2, Lean Yu1,2,3()   

  1. 1.School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China
    2.Key Laboratory of Big Data and Business Intelligence Technology (Harbin Engineering University),Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Harbin 150001,China
    3.Business School,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China
  • Received:2023-05-08 Revised:2024-01-20 Online:2026-08-25 Published:2026-07-14
  • Contact: Lean Yu E-mail:yulean@amss.ac.cn

摘要:

随着世界经济低迷和逆全球化的兴起,越来越多的国家开始采取加征关税的方式构筑贸易壁垒。本文分别构建了加征关税下基于转口贸易、出海办厂以及维持现状的供应链决策模型。其中,转口贸易策略下,原产国的制造商将产品出口给第三国,并由第三国的中间商贴牌后再出口到加征关税国以规避加征的关税;出海办厂策略下,制造商将工厂外迁到加征关税国或第三国以规避加征的关税;维持现状策略下,制造商维持原产国的生产并承担加征的关税。研究发现,若制造商采取维持现状策略,将承担大部分因加征关税带来的损失,而只能把少量损失转嫁给加征关税国的零售商和消费者。在该策略下,当产品的市场规模较小时,加征关税国的关税收入会低于零售商和消费者效用的损失之和,即加征关税会使加征关税国承受损失;当产品的市场规模较大时,加征关税会使加征关税国获利。不论制造商选择转口贸易、出海办厂还是维持现状策略,与不加征关税的基准模型相比,加征关税总会导致社会福利的净流失。除此之外,若出海办厂的固定成本较高且加征的关税税率不太高时,制造商无需重构自身的供应链(即选择维持现状策略);否则,制造商应重构其供应链:当固定成本较低时采取出海办厂的重构策略;当固定成本较高且加征的关税税率太高时,采取转口贸易策略。

关键词: 供应链管理, 关税, 重构策略

Abstract:

With the downturn of world economy and the rise of anti-globalization, increasing number of countries begin to take the way of tariff intervention to build trade barriers. The supply chain decision-making models are constructed based on re-export trade, setting up factories overseas and bearing high tariffs under tariff intervention. Under the re-export strategy, the manufacturer of the country of origin exports products to a third country, and the middleman of the third country labels the products and exports them to the intervention country to avoid the additional tariffs; under the strategy of setting up factories overseas, the manufacturer move their factories to the intervention country or a third country to avoid tariff intervention; under the strategy of bearing high tariff, the manufacturer maintains the production in the country of origin and bears the high tariff imposed. It is found that if the manufacturer adopts the strategy of bearing high tariffs, it will bear most of the losses caused by the imposition of tariffs, and only a small amount of losses can be passed on to the retailer and consumers in the tariff intervention country. Under the strategy of bearing high tariffs, when the market size of products is small, the tariff revenue of the intervention country is lower than the sum of the utility losses of the retailer and consumers; that is, tariff intervention makes the intervention country suffer losses. When the market size of products is large, tariff intervention will benefit the intervening country. Whether the manufacturer chooses the strategy of re-export trade, setting up factories overseas or bearing high tariffs, compared with the benchmark model, tariff intervention always leads to a net loss of social welfare. In addition, if the fixed cost of setting up factory overseas is high and the additional tax rate is not too high, the manufacturer does not need to reconstruct its own supply chain; that is, the manufacturer chooses to bear the high tariff; Otherwise, the manufacturer should restructure its supply chain: when the fixed cost is low, it should adopt the strategy of setting up factories overseas; when the fixed cost is high and the tax rate is too high, it should select the strategy of re-export trade. However, for the downstream retailer, the strategy of setting up factories overseas is most beneficial.

Key words: supply chain management, tariff, reconstruction strategy

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