由于监管缺失、信用风险管理缺位，导致网络借贷市场的违约事件持续出现，损害网络借贷市场的参与者利益。本文构建了一个包括网络借贷平台、金融监管机构和投资者的网络借贷市场参与主体的三方行为策略演化博弈模型，从演化博弈的角度分析了网络借贷平台、金融监管机构和投资者的策略选择对网络借贷市场运行的影响，并以拍拍贷平台为案例进行数值模拟分析。研究结果表明：不同初始值的三方博弈结果存在显著差异，网络借贷市场参与主体行为策略的演化博弈不具有稳定中心点、且不存在稳定的均衡点。另外，当金融监管机构采取"严格监管"措施时，惩罚值越高，网络借贷平台越倾向于选择"自律"的行为策略，随着投资者投资额度的增加，网络借贷平台选择"自律"行为策略的概率逐渐降低。最后，提出规范网络借贷市场参与者行为和风险控制的对策建议。
The default events often occur on online lending market which damages the interests of participants due to lack of supervision and credit risk management. In this paper, a trilateral evolutionary game model which includes online lending platform, financial regulators and investors on online lending market is constructed. From the evolutionary game perspective, How the strategies of online lending platform, financial regulators and investors influence the operation of online lending market is addressed, and PaipPaiDai platform is taken as a case for numerical simulation analysis. The findings show that the difference of the results of trilateral game is significant with different initial values. The evolutionary game of participants' strategy does not have stable center point and stable equilibrium point on online lending market. In addition, online lending platform tends to take self-discipline strategy when financial regulators take strict supervision measures. Online lending platform tends to select self-discipline strategy gradually with the investment amounts increase. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to regulate the participants' behavior and risk control on online lending market.
[1] 廖理, 李梦然, 王正位. 聪明的投资者:非完全市场化利率与风险识别——来自P2P网络借贷的证据[J]. 经济研究, 2014, (7):125-137.
[2] 李焰, 高弋君, 李珍妮,等. 借款人描述性信息对投资人决策的影响——基于P2P网络借贷平台的分析[J]. 经济研究, 2014, (S1):143-155.
[3] Berger S C, Gleisner F. Emergence of financial intermediaries in electronic markets:The case of online P2P lending[J]. Business Research, 2009, 2(1):39-65.
[4] Puro L, Teich J E, Wallenius H, et al. Borrower decision aid for people-to-people lending[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2010, 49(1):52-60.
[5] 卢馨, 李慧敏. P2P网络借贷的运行模式与风险管控[J]. 改革, 2015, (2):60-68.
[6] 王会娟, 廖理, 中国P2P网络借贷平台信用认证机制研究——来自"人人贷"的经验证据[J]. 中国工业经济, 2014, (4):136-147.
[7] Pope D G, Sydnor J R. What's in a picture? Evidence of discrimination from Prosper.Com[J]. Journal of Human Resources, 2011, 46(1):3-37.
[8] Ravina E., Love & loans:The effect of beauty and personal characteristics in credit markets[EB/OL]. Available at SSRN 1107307, 2012.
[9] Duarte J, Siegel S, Young L. Trust and credit:The role of appearance in peer-to-peer lending[J]. Review of Financial Studies, 2012. 25(8):2455-2484.
[10] 王会娟, 何琳. 借款描述对P2P网络借贷行为影响的实证研究[J]. 金融经济学研究, 2015, (1):77-85.
[11] Loureiro Y K, Gonzalez L. Competition against common sense:Insights on peer-to-peer lending as a tool to allay financial exclusion[J]. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 2015, 33(5):605-623.
[12] Herzenstein M, Sonenshein S, Dholakia U M, Tell me a good story and I may lend you money:The role of narratives in Peer-to-Peer lending decisions[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, 2011, 48(SPL):S138-S149.
[13] Lin M, Prabhala R, Viswanathan S. Judging borrowers by the company they keep:Friendship networks and information asymmetry in Online Peer-to-Peer lending[J]. Management Science, 2013, 59(1):17-35.
[14] Everett C R. Group membership, relationship banking and loan default risk:The case of online social lending[J]. Banking and Finance Review, 2015, 7(2):15-54.
[15] Liu De, Brass D J, Lu Yong, et al. Friendships in online Peer-to-Peer lending:Pipes, prisms, and social herding[J]. MIS Quarterly, 2015, 39(3):729-742.
[16] 廖理, 张伟强. P2P网络借贷实证研究:一个文献综述[J]. 清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2017, 32(2):186-196.
[17] 冯博, 叶绮文, 陈冬宇. P2P网络借贷研究进展及中国问题研究展望[J]. 管理科学学报, 2017, 20(4):113-126.
[18] Iyer R, Khwaja A I, Luttmer E F P, et al. Screening peers softly:Inferring the quality of small borrowers[J]. Management Science, 2016, 62(2):1554-1577.
[19] Freedman S, Jin G Z. Learning by doing with asymmetric information:Evidence from Prosper.com[R]. National Becreau of Economic Research, Working Paper, NBER, 2011.
[20] 廖理, 李梦然, 王正位. 中国互联网金融的地域歧视研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2014, (5):54-70.
[21] Lin M, Viswanathan S. Home bias in online investments:An empirical study of an online Crowdfunding market[J]. Management Science, 2016, 62(5):1393-1414.
[22] 廖理, 李梦然, 王正位等. 观察中学习:P2P网络投资中信息传递与羊群行为[J]. 清华大学学报, 2015, (1):156-165.
[23] 谢平, 邹传伟, 刘海二. 网络借贷监管的必要性与核心原则[J]. 国际金融研究, 2014, (8):3-9.
[24] 俞林, 康灿华, 王龙. 网络借贷监管博弈研究:以P2P网贷模式为例[J]. 南开经济研究, 2015, (5):126-139.
[25] 帅青红. P2P网络借贷监管的博弈分析[J]. 四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2014, (4):133-138.
[26] 杜杨. 基于动态演化博弈的网络借贷创新路径与监管策略[J]. 统计与决策,2015, (17):37-41.
[27] 刘伟, 夏立秋, 王一雷. 动态惩罚机制下互联网金融平台行为及监管策略的演化博弈分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2017, 37(5):1113-1122.
[28] Liu Wei, Xia Liqiu, An evolutionary behavior forecasting model for online lenders and borrowers in peer-to-peer lending[J]. Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research, 2017, 34(1):174008(1-14).
[29] 刘德海. 群体性突发事件中政府机会主义行为的演化博弈分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2010, 18(1):175-183.
[30] 郑君君, 闫龙, 张好雨,等. 基于演化博弈和优化理论的环境污染群体性事件处置机制[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015, 23(8):168-176.
[31] 黄建华. 政府双重干预下基于渠道商价格欺诈的农产品交易演化博弈模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(11):66-72.
[32] 张华. 协同创新、知识溢出的演化博弈机制研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(2):92-99.
