本文运用计量经济学方法，如协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数等，深入研究了中国在1990-2013期间电力消耗、经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间的关系。研究结果表明，电力消耗、经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间存在协整关系，即长期均衡关系；经济增长与电力消耗之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系，但不存在电力消耗与二氧化碳排放量，经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间的格兰杰因果关系。与此同时，VAR模型估计结果显示，滞后一期的电力消耗对当期经济增长和二氧化碳排放量产生正向的作用，滞后一期的电力消耗促进当期的电力消耗，同时也促进当期经济增长和CO2排放量增加；经济增长的滞后期对当期电力消耗和二氧化碳排放量产生负向的作用，而二氧化碳排放量的滞后期对当期经济增长没有显著影响。基于此，实证分析结果表明经济增长在短期内会造成二氧化碳排放量的增加，但正如环境库兹涅茨曲线描述的结论一样，从长期来看，经济增长促进了技术的进步和能源效率的提高，进而导致二氧化碳排放量的减少。该发现对于中国发展低碳经济和电力部门能源政策的制定都将有着重要现实意义。
Global climate change has attracted wide attention of the international community, countries around the world have studied climate change to develop the corresponding energy policy. China as the world's largest carbon emitter, the power industry is an important basic industry for the development of the national economy,exploring the causal relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions has important practical significance for the relevant authorities in China in developing low-carbon economy and energy policy planning for power sector.
In this paper, the causal relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions is discussed based on the panel data of WDI database during 1990-2013 by using econometric techniques,including cointegration test,Granger causality test and impulse response functions. First, the unit root is used to test whether the time series data is stable, because only the stable time series data can be cointegration test and Granger causality test. Then the VAR model is used to explore the long-term equilibrium relationships between electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions and the short-term interactions between variables. Finally, the impulse response functions is used to analyze the effect of stochastic perturbation on the other variables in the model.
The empirical results show that there exists aco-integration relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions,which means long-term equilibrium relationship.While there does not exists Granger causality between electricity consumption and CO2 emissions,economic growth and CO2 emissions,and there exists a two-way Granger causality between economic growth and electricity consumption. It is concluded from the VAR model that the lag of electricity consumption has a positive effect on current economic growth and CO2 emissions;the lag of economic growth has a negative effect on current electricity consumption and CO2 emissions, while the lag of CO2 emissions has no significant impact on current economic growth. Which implies that the previous period economic growth promotes the current economic growth in the short term, as the environmental Kuznets curve described it will stimulate technological innovation and improve energy efficiency in the long term,reducing the current CO2 emissions as results.
Based on the empirical results, some advice on China's low-carbon economy development and energy policy planning is provided for the power sector. Electricity consumption will increase the amount of CO2 emissions, but not directly promote economic growth. Therefore, in order to reduce CO2 emissions while maintaining economic growth, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of energy consumption, through technological progress or industrial structure adjustment, making per unit of electricity consumption reduction, thus "low energy consumption, low emission, high yield" green development can be achieved.in addition,it can also actively promote the power industry structure optimization or to find new energy to develop low-carbon economy.
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