地方政府债券"自发自还"模式虽然可以有效解决以往模式发行主体和偿债主体的不一致性，但高层级地方政府在分配债券资源时仍然面临着较大的信息不对称和道德风险。本文依据结构化模型及契约理论，从高层级地方政府的角度构建了地方政府债券发行额度的分配决策模型。在效益风险合理搭配的框架下，通过使用遗传算法对双重目标进行加权，分析了省级政府与地（市）级政府之间的债券优化配置方案。研究结果表明，基于经济社会效益最大化和政府债券违约概率最小化等多目标优化求解，可以实现政府债券资源分配的帕累托改进。这对于地方政府债务风险显性化和政府债券合理配置研究将大有裨益，从而有利于科学管控我国日益严峻的地方政府债务风险。
Although the mode about issues and repayments by itself of local government bonds can effectively solve the problem about the non-conformance of the issue subject and the debt service subject, yet the high level government still faces great information asymmetry and moral hazard in the allocation of bond resources. Because China nation state carries on the quota management to debt balance of the local government, the provincial government is faced with the problem of how to allocate the new municipal government bonds under constraint conditions of ∑xti ≤ A1.The ultimate goal is to minimize the probability of government debt default and maximize its benefits. In light of the Structure Model and the Contract Theory,the allocation decision model of local government bond issuance is constructed from the perspective of the high-ranking local government. A prerequisite is set as one of the constraint conditions on the minimum default risk or the maximum benefit of the government bond issuance, and approaches are stuied to be revealled to the realization of another goal. However, this depends on a reasonable determination of the weight of the two objectives. These two targets are used to give the corresponding weights by the weight coefficient transformation method. The multiple targets about the minimum default risk and the maximum benefit of the government bond issuance are synthesized into a single global target, and then an optimal solution set is sought by target optimization. Under the framework of the reasonable matching of income and risk, by using the genetic algorithm, into the bond configuration optimization scheme between the provincial government and municipal government based on the weighted dual objective. The results show that multi-objective optimization can realize the Pareto improvement of government bond resource allocation on the basis of the minimum default risk and the maximum benefit of the government bond issuance. A provincial government with 15 municipal cities included is taken as an example. The provincial government will distribute bond issuance amount based on the size of the assets of the municipal governments. This will be of great benefit to the study of debt risk dominances and the rational allocation of government bonds. Accordingly, it is conducive to the scientific management of China's increasingly serious debt risk of local governments.
[1] Vogt M G.Municipal bond banks and their effects on the finances of local government[J].Quarterly Journal of Business & Economics,1984, 23(1):38-50.
[2] Toru N. The bond market and fiscal balance-an analysis of public subscription local government bonds[J]. The Japanese Economy, 2011, 38(1):59-80.
[3] Wright D J, Holmberg W K. Rising government debt levels:Significant distinctions between the state and local government municipal bond market versus the federal debt market[J].Franklin Business & Law Journal, 2014, 2014(2):21-38.
[4] Robbins M D,Simonsen B. Debt issued through others:Conduits, joint powers authorities,and borrowing costs in California local governments[J]. Public Budgeting & Finance, 2012, 32(2):69-85.
[5] Kidwell D S. The inclusion and exercise of call provisions by the state and local governments[J].Journal of Money, Credit & Banking,1976,8(3):391-398.
[6] Hopewell M H, Kaufman G G. PIC:An alternative approach to accepting bids on local and state government bonds:Comment[J]. Financial Management, 1972, 8(2):42-45.
[7] Ely T L, Martell C R. Costs of raising (social) capital through mini-bonds[J]. Municipal Finance Journal, 2016, 37(3):23-43.
[8] Michael D J, David S K. Comparative costs of competitive and negotiated underwritings in the state and local bond market[J]. The Journal of Finance, 1979,34(3):725-731.
[9] 徐家杰. 对分税制改革以来我国地方政府债务规模的估计-以浙豫疆三省区为例[J]. 经济理论与经济管理,2014,(9):15-25.
[10] 洪源,秦玉奇,王群群. 地方政府债务规模绩效评估、影响机制及优化治理研究[J].中国软科学,2015,(11):161-175.
[11] Chung C S. Government budgets as the hunger games:The brutal competition for state and local government resources given municipal securities debt, pension and OBEP obligations, and taxpayer needs[J]. Review of Banking & Financial Law, 2014,33(2):663-777.
[12] Baber W R,Sen P K. The political process and the use of debt financing by state governments[J]. Public Choice, 1986, 48(3):201-215.
[13] Martin J L. Federal intervention in the municipal bond market:The effectiveness of the build America bond program and its implications on federal and subnational budgeting[J]. Public Budgeting & Finance, 2012, 32(4):46-70.
[14] Fujiki H,Uchida H. Inflation target and debt management of local government bonds[J]. Japan & the World Economy, 2011, 23(3):178-189.
[15] 王永钦,戴芸,包特. 财政分权下的地方政府债券设计:不同发行方式与最优信息准确度[J].经济研究,2015,(11):65-78.
[16] Hildreth W B,Miller G J.Debt and the local economy:problems in benchmarking local government debt affordability[J].Public Budgeting & Finance, 2002, 22(4):99-113.
[17] Nakazato T. The bond market and fiscal balance[J]. Japanese Economy, 2011, 38(1):,59-80.
[18] Pop C, Georgescu M A. Romanian municipal bond market at Bucharest Stock Exchange:Further investigations[J]. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 2015, 22(1):145-176.
[19] Allen A,Dudney D. The Impact of rating agency reputation on local government bond yields[J]. Journal of Financial Services Research,2008, 33(1):,57-76.
[20] Allen A,Sanders G, Dudney D. Should more local governments purchase a bond rating?[J]. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2009, 32(4):421-438.
[21] Devitt C. Michigan passes slate of laws affecting local bond issuance[J].Bond Buyer, 2010, 374(33441):8-8.
[22] Doty R.Diversity and default risks of municipal bonds[J]. Municipal Finance Journal, 2013, 34(2):55-87.
[23] Chen Lin,Zhou Zongfang,Peng Yi,et al. Structural model for determining enterprise group's integrated line of credit[J]. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 2011, 10(2):269-285.
[24] 陈林,周宗放.商业银行集团客户统一授信额度的优化配置研究[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(2):39-43.
[25] 陈林,周宗放,顾婧. 基于复合期权篮子期权及股权关系的企业集团母公司信用风险度量研究[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(5):167-172.
[26] Milevsky M A, Posner S E. A closed-form approximation for valuing basket options[J]. The Journal of Derivatives, 1998, 5(4):54-61.
