主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
论文

考虑投标者有限理性行为的网上临时一口价拍卖的卖方收益分析

展开
  • 1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 江苏 南京 211106;
    2. 东北大学工商管理学院, 辽宁 沈阳 110167

收稿日期: 2015-06-06

  修回日期: 2017-02-26

  网络出版日期: 2017-09-25

基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571039)

Seller's Revenue in Online Temporary Buyout-price Auctions Considering Bidders' Bounded Rationality Behavior

Expand
  • 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;
    2. School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110167, China

Received date: 2015-06-06

  Revised date: 2017-02-26

  Online published: 2017-09-25

摘要

网上临时一口价拍卖是一种常见的网上一口价拍卖方式,针对这种方式,在考虑投标者有限理性行为的情形下,如何进行拍卖的卖方收益分析,并在此基础上制定合理的一口价水平,这是一个需要关注的研究课题。在本文中,基于投标者有限理性假设,以完全理性投标者最优投标策略及卖方期望收益模型为研究基础,使用投标者行为选择函数刻画了投标者有限理性行为,并构建了考虑投标者有限理性行为的网上临时一口价拍卖的卖方期望收益模型。进一步地,依据构建的模型,通过一口价水平、投标者人数和投标者有限理性程度对卖方收益影响的数值仿真,以及进行考虑投标者有限理性与完全理性两种情形下的卖方期望收益的比较分析,得到了一些重要结论和管理启示。

本文引用格式

高广鑫, 樊治平 . 考虑投标者有限理性行为的网上临时一口价拍卖的卖方收益分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017 , 25(7) : 102 -112 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.07.012

Abstract

With the rapid development of information technology, the online auction has broken the limitation of time and space for traditional auction, and greatly expanded the time and space of auction. Then, more customers would like to sell their goods to obtain revenue through the online auction sites such as "eBay.com". With the innovation of online auction format, the online buyout-price auction, including fixed buyout-price, temporary and permanent buyout-price, has been widely applied in online auction business. In practice, the temporary buyout-price auction is a common format of the online buyout-price auction. From the seller point of view, it is important for him/her to estimate the revenue when using the temporary buyout-price auction to sell goods. At present, in most research of online auction, bidders are assumed to be perfect rationality, but previous research has shown that, in a complex and uncertain environment, bidders usually exhibit bounded rationality behavior and such behavior will have impacts on the seller's revenue. Thus, it is a noteworthy research topic how to conduct the seller's revenue analysis and set the buyout price in the temporary buyout-price auction with consideration of the situation that bidders are bounded rationality. In this paper, we assume that the bidders are bounded rationality. For the baseline study, we first analyze the bidder's optimal strategy in the temporary buyout-price auction under the assumption of perfect rationality, and construct the seller's expected revenue model. Then, the bidding probability-based function for bidders' behavior choice is adopted to characterize the bidders' behavior with bounded rationality. On such base, a seller's expected revenue model is constructed by incorporating the concept of bidder's bounded rationality behavior into the model for consideration. Furthermore, according to the model, the numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the impacts of three factors (buyout price, number of bidders and degree of bounded rationality) on the seller's revenue, and the seller's expected revenue under the assumption of bounded rationality and perfect rationality are analyzed and compared. By the analysis of seller's revenue and the results of the numerical experiments, some important conclusions are obtained, as well as some managerial insights. Moreover, an example is used to illustrate the feasibility and its potential application of the seller's expected revenue model. Through the theoretical analysis, we find that the seller's expected revenue is related to not only the buyout price but also the bidder's bounded rationality behavior, which bridges the gap between the seller's revenue and the bidder's psychological behavior. The seller's revenue with consideration of bidder's bounded rationality behavior is almost more than the one based on the assumption of bidder's perfect rationality. In addition, when the buyout price is low and the number of bidders is large, the seller will obtain more revenue from the temporary buyout-price auction. To effectively estimate seller's revenue from the temporary buyout-price auction, it is necessary to take into account some crucial influence, such as buyout price, number of bidders, degree of bounded rationality, operational cost and auction participation cost. The seller's expected revenue model proposed by this paper provides guidance for analyzing and estimating the seller's revenue in the real online temporary buyout-price auction considering the bidder's bounded rationality behavior. This paper enriches the theory of online auction and can be studied and applied more widely.

参考文献

[1] 杨兴丽, 陈霞, 吕廷杰. 网上一口价拍卖顾客投标策略研究[J]. 管理科学, 2007, 20(4): 57-60.

[2] 陈剑, 陈熙龙, 宋西平. 拍卖理论与网上拍卖[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2005.

[3] 丁黎黎, 徐寅峰, 刘新民. 基于风险偏好下的网上在线拍卖策略设计[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(3): 96-102.

[4] 倪冠群, 徐寅峰, 郑斐峰. 网上一口价在线拍卖的定价策略设计[J]. 管理科学学报, 2011, 14(3): 1-9.

[5] Zoltan H, Wang Wenli, Whinston A B. Buy-price English auction [J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 2006, 129(1): 31-56.

[6] Sun D, Li E, Hayya J C. The optimal format to sell a product through the internet: Posted price, auction, and buy-price auction [J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2010, 127(1): 147-157.

[7] Reynolds S, Wooders J. Auctionswith a buy price [J]. Economic Theory, 2009, 38(1): 9-39.

[8] Gallien J, Gupta S. Temporary and permanent buyout prices in online auctions [J]. Management Science, 2007, 53(5): 814-833.

[9] Simon H A. Models ofbounded rationality: Empirically grounded economic reason [M]. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997.

[10] Rubinstein A. Modelingbounded rationality [M]. Cambridge,MA:MIT Press, 1998.

[11] Monderer D, Tennenholtz M. Optimal auctions revisited [J]. Artificial Intelligence, 2000, 120(1): 29-42.

[12] Budish E B, Takeyama L N. Buy prices in online auctions: Irrationality on the internet? [J]. Economic Letters, 2001, 72(3): 325-333.

[13] 杜黎, 华桂芬. 固定价格与英式拍卖同时使用时顾客行为分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2010, 18(5): 113-121.

[14] 田剑, 高杰. 不同一口价网上组合拍卖规则下拍卖方收益分析[J]. 系统管理学报, 2012, 21(2): 246-251.

[15] Jiang Zhongzhong, Fang S C, Fan Zhiping, et al. Selecting optimal selling format of a product in B2C onlineauction with bounded rational customers [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2013, 226(1): 139-153.

[16] 杜黎, 刘丽丽, 贾俊秀. 向下降价秒杀中顾客秒杀策略以及卖方期望收益分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(9): 18-25.

[17] 刘树人, 唐沛, 黄颖娜. 网上拍卖销售与逆向拍卖采购下的库存管理[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015, 23(11): 62-69.

[18] Milgrom P R. Auction theory [M]. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1987.

[19] Roth A E, Ockenfels A. Last minute bidding and the rules for ending second price auctions: Evidence from ebay and amazon auctions on the internet [J]. American economic review, 2002, 92(4): 1093-1103.

[20] Tversky A, Kahneman D. Rational choice and the framing of decisions [J]. The Journal of Business, 1986, 59(4): 251-278.

[21] Alba J W, Hutchinson J W. Dimensions of consumer expertise [J]. Journal of Consumer Research, 1987, 13(4): 113-123.

[22] Bettman J R, Luce M F, Payne J W. Constructive consumer choice processes [J]. Journal of Consumer Research, 1998, 25(3): 187-217.

[23] Shen Z J M, Su Xuanming. Customer behavior modeling in revenue management and auctions: A review and new research opportunities [J]. Production and Operations Management, 2007, 16(6): 713-728.

[24] Su Xuanming. Bounded rationality in newsvendor models [J]. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2008, 10(4): 566-589.
文章导航

/