后悔预期是消费者心理风险的主要表现。由于消费者对再制品的属性认知存在不确定性，他们在购买决策时会产生一定的后悔预期，进而显著影响再制造供应链的运作效率和权力结构。为研究消费者后悔预期对竞争型再制造供应链产生的影响，定量描述了后悔预期下消费者的效用，推导了新产品和再制品的需求函数，建立并求解了无领导（NL），原制造商（OEM）领导（OL），独立再制造商（IR）领导（IRL）三种权力结构下的博弈模型，利用理论分析和数值仿真相结合的方法详细分析了各种权力结构下新产品和再制品价格、需求量与后悔预期以及消费者异质性的关系，并研究了供应链成员、消费者和整个社会对各种权力结构的偏好。研究表明：再制品价格与消费者后悔预期敏感度和消费者异质性均负相关，再制品需求和IR利润与以上两个因素均正相关；OEM和IR都具有“后动优势”，其大小受到消费者后悔预期敏感度的影响；当消费者后悔预期敏感度和异质性均较大时，消费者和社会均最偏好OL模式，其它情况下消费者最偏好NL模式；整个社会则可能偏好IRL模式，也可能偏好NL模式。
Anticipated regret is one important respond of psychology risk for consumers. Consumers might behave anticipated regret in their purchasing decisions for that it is difficult for them to assess the valuation of remanufactured products owing to the uncertainty in products' attributes. This would play a key role in the operation efficiency and power structure in supply chain with remanufacturing. However, the existing literature didn't pay their attentions to the problem. In this paper, the utility of consumer under anticipated regret is developed and demand functions of the new and remanufactured products are derived in order to study the influence of consumer's anticipated regret on supply chain. Then, the game models which are under the three power structures including no leader (NL), OEM is leader (OL) and IR is leader (IRL) are developed and solved. The relationships of product prices, demand quantity and anticipated regret and consumer heterogeneity among the above three power structures are analyzed based on theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. In addition, the preferences of each supply chain member, consumer and society for the three power structures are studied. The results show that the remanufactured product price has negative relationship with the sensitiveness of consumer's anticipated regret and consumer heterogeneity. Meanwhile, as the two parameters increasing, the demand of remanufactured product and profit of IR are increasing. It is found that OEM and IR might enjoy a "second-move advantage", which is decided by the sensitiveness of consumer's anticipated regret. In addition, when both the consumer's anticipated regret sensitiveness and heterogeneity are large enough, both consumers and society prefer OL model. However, in the other situations, consumers prefer NL model, but society might prefer IRL model or NL model.
[1] 达庆利, 黄祖庆, 张钦. 逆向物流系统结构研究的现状及展望[J].中国管理科学, 2004, 12(1):1-17.
[2] Savaskan R C, Bhattacharya S, Wassenhove L V. Closed-loop supply chain models with product remanufacturing[J].Management Science, 2004, 50(2):239-253.
[3] 张汉江, 余华英, 李聪颖. 闭环供应链上的回收激励契约设计与政府补贴再制造政策的优化[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(8):71-78.
[4] 熊中楷, 王凯, 熊榆. 制造商作为再制造商的经销商的合作模式研究[J]. 管理工程学报, 2011, 25(3):189-193.
[5] Majumder P, Groenevelt H. Competition in remanufacturing[J]. Production and Operations Management, 2001, 10(2):125-141.
[6] Bulmus S C, Zhu S X, Teunter R. Competition for cores in remanufacturing[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2014, 233(1):105-113.
[7] Adem O, Eda K Z, Ali K P. Competitive quality choice and remanufacturing[J].Production and Operations Management, 2014, 23(1):48-64.
[8] 丁斌, 马海庆. 两级再制造的S-M闭环供应链的决策与绩效分析[J].中国管理科学, 2015, 23(6):118-125.
[9] Gao Juhong, Han Hongshuai, Hou Liting,et al. Pricing and effort decisions in a closed-loop supply chain under different channel power structures[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 112:2043-2057.
[10] 曹晓刚,郑本荣,闻卉.考虑顾客偏好的双渠道闭环供应链定价与协调决策[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(6):107-117.
[11] Panno A, Lauriola M, Pierro A. Regulatory mode and risk-taking:The mediating role of anticipated regret.[J]. Plos One, 2015, 10(11):1291-1293.
[12] Ratan A. Anticipated regret or endowment effect? A reconsideration of exchange asymmetry in laboratory experiments[J]. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2014, 14(1):277-298.
[13] Zeelenberg M, Jane B, Joop V D P, et al. Consequences of regret aversion:Effects of expected feedback on risky decision making[J].Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1996,65(2):148-158.
[14] Li A, Reb J, Bagger J. Anticipated regret in time-based work-family conflict[J]. Journal of Managerial Psychology, 2014, 29(3):304-320.
[15] 银成钺, 于洪彦. 预期后悔对消费者冲动性购买行为的影响研究[J]. 管理评论, 2009, 21(12):71-79.
[16] 张世涛, 朱建军,刘小弟. 方案对多维偏好信息下基于后悔理论的群决策方法[J]. 中国管理科学,2014,22(S1):33-41.
[17] Syam N, Krishnamurthy P, Hess J D. That is what I thought I wanted? Miswanting and regret for a standard good in a mass-customized world[J]. Marketing Science, 2008, 27(3):379-397.
[18] Nasiry J, Popescu I. Advance selling when consumers regret[J].Management Science,2012,58(6):1160-1177.
[19] Jiang Baojun, Narasimhan C, Turut O. Anticipated regret and product innovation[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2015.
[20] Sarangee K, Schmidt J B, Walmann J P. Clinging to slim chances:Dynamics of anticipated regret when developing new products[J]. Journal of Product Innovation,2013,30(5):980-993.
