主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
论文

基于非参数日内跳跃检验和高频数据的公司信息披露对股市价格波动影响研究

展开
  • 中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院, 北京 100081

收稿日期: 2015-04-11

  修回日期: 2016-02-16

  网络出版日期: 2016-12-27

基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271223,70971145);教育部新世纪人才支持计划(NECT-13-1054)

A Study of Firm Specific Information Disclosure on the Price Variation with Nonparametric Intraday Jumps Detection in High Frequency Data

Expand
  • School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China

Received date: 2015-04-11

  Revised date: 2016-02-16

  Online published: 2016-12-27

摘要

本文以2012年1月4日至2013年12月31日之间的共481个交易日作为样本期间,以样本期间上交所发布的“上证180”成分股中的上市公司的经营公告、财务报告及证券分析师根据上述信息披露的股评三种信息为主要研究对象,从验证方法选择、高频数据选取、信息考察窗口优化及基于面板数据多元Logistics回归模型构建等四个方面将跳跃与不同信息相联系,分析股价波动与不同信息披露的关系。研究结果表明,当信息范围为公司特定的经营公告、财务报告及分析师建议时,经营公告是最具影响力的信息披露渠道,而分析师建议并不是引起股价异常波动最重要的信息。同时,本文研究揭示仅有20%的跳跃与此类信息披露相关,当解释变量覆盖代表宏观信息“系统性事件”和行业、板块信息的“行业事件”时,也仅40%的价格跳跃发生和信息披露有关。本文的研究不仅表明哪一种信息可能更具有投资价值,而且揭示在此研究基础上继续探究引起股价异常波动的其他起因事件可能更具有重要意义。

本文引用格式

刘志东, 杨竞一 . 基于非参数日内跳跃检验和高频数据的公司信息披露对股市价格波动影响研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016 , 24(10) : 22 -34 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.003

Abstract

Using an intraday LM non-parameter jump detection technique in a multivariate framework, firm-specific information disclosure and its impact on stock price reaction are explored in this paper. The three common avenues are linked for information disclosure:analyst recommendations, earnings announcements, and management guidance with jump in price, the sample consists of stocks listed on the Shanghai 180 index for the two year period between January 2012 and December 2013. After controlling for confounding events and through multivariate logistic regression based on two different models, empirical research indicates that management guidance are more likely than either earnings announcements or analyst recommendations to cause a stock price jump, and analyst recommendations are not so appear informative in China. Meanwhile, although the paper can reveal that relative importance of recommendations, earnings announcements and guidance to investment decision, but those information collectively explain only 20% of all firm-specific jumps calculated using the nonparametric intraday jumps detection in high frequency data. Even considering the impact of macroeconomic news releases or industry information on volatility and prices, the rate only increase to 40%. Thus, more research needs to be done to identify the types of other unknown events that cause jumps in the market.

参考文献

[1] Womack K L.Do brokerage analysts' recommendations have investment value?[J].Journal of Finance,1996,51(1):137-167.

[2] Michaely R,Womack K.Brokerage recommendations:Stylized characteristics,market responses,and biases[M]//Thaler,R H,Advances in Behavioral Finance,Ⅱ.NJ Princeton:Princeton University Press,2005.

[3] Ramnath S,Rock S,Shane P B.Financial analysts'forecasts and stock recommendations:A review of the research[J].Foundations and Trends in Finance,2008,(4):311-420.

[4] Altinkilic,O,Hansen R S.On the information role of stock recommendation revisions[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2009,48(1):17-36.

[5] Altinkilic O,Balashov V S,Hansen R.Evidence that analysts are not important information intermediaries[R].Working paper,Tulane University,2010.

[6] Loh R,Stulz R.When are analyst recommendation changes influential?[J].Review of Financial Studies,2011,24(2):593-627.

[7] Bradley D,Clark J,Lee S S,et al.Are analysts' recommendations informative? Intraday evidence on the impact of time stamp delays[J].The Journal of Finance,2014,69(2):645-673.

[8] 袁知柱,鞠晓峰.中国上市公司会计信息质量与股价信息含量关系实证检验[J].中国管理科学,2008,16(10):231-234.

[9] 孙伟,周瑶.企业社会责任信息披露与资本市场信息不对称关系的实证研究[J].中国管理科学,2012,16(10):889-893.

[10] 于忠泊,田高良,曾振.上市公司临时报告对资本市场信息传递的影响[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(6):1151-1165.

[11] 朱红军,何贤杰,陶林.中国的证券分析师能够提高资本市场的效率吗-基于股价同步性和股价信息含量的经验证据[J].金融研究,2007,(2):110-121.

[12] 储一昀,仓勇涛.财务分析师预测的价格可信吗?-来自中国证券市场的经验证据[J].管理世界,2008,(3):58-69.

[13] 伍燕然,潘可,胡松明,等.行业分析师盈利预测偏差的新解释[J].经济研究,2012,(4):149-160.

[14] 薛祖云,王冲.信息竞争抑或信息补充:证券分析师的角色扮演-基于我国证券市场的实证分析[J].经济研究,2011,(11):167-182.

[15] 潘越,戴亦一,林超群.信息不透明、分析师关注与个股暴跌风险[J].金融研究,2011,(9):138-151.

[16] 李春涛,胡宏兵,谭亮.中国上市银行透明度研究-分析师盈余预测和市场同步性的证据[J].金融研究,2013,(6):118-132.

[17] 游家兴,邱世远,刘淳.证券分析师预测"变脸"行为研究-基于分析师声誉的博弈模型与实证检验[J].管理科学学报,2013,16(6):67-84.

[18] 冯旭南,徐宗宇.分析师、信息传播与股价联动:基于中国股市信息溢出的研究[J].管理工程学报,2014,28(4):75-81.

[19] 周铭山,林靖,许年行.分析师跟踪与股价同步性-基于过度反应视角的证据[J].管理科学学报,2016,19(6):49-73.

[20] 刘迪.股价涨跌停事后反应:异质信息的影响[J].管理工程学报,2015,29(2):240-250.

[21] 唐勇,张伯新.基于高频数据的中国股市跳跃特征实证分析[J].中国管理科学,2013,21(5):29-39.

[22] Lee S,Mykland P.Jumps in financial markets:A new nonparametric test and jump dynamics[J].Review of Financial Studies,2008,21(6):2535-2563.

[23] Andersen T G,Bollerslev T,Diebold F X,et al.Micro effects of macro announcements:Real-time price discovery in foreign exchange[J].American Economic Review,2003,93(1):38-62.

[24] Balduzzi P,Green T C,Elton E J.Economic news and the yield curve:Evidence from the U.S.treasury market[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2001,36:523-543.

[25] Ederington,L H,Lee J H.How markets process information:News releases and volatility[J].Journal of Finance,1993,48(4):1161-1191.

[26] Harvey C R,Huang R D.Volatility in the foreign currency futures market[J].Review of Financial Studies,1991;4(3):543-569.

[27] Jiang G J,Lo I,Verdelhan A.Information shocks,liquidity shocks,jumps,and price discovery:Evidence from the U S treasury market[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2011,46(2):527-551.

[28] 余秋玲,朱宏泉.宏观经济信息与股价联动-基于中国市场的实证分析[J].管理科学学报,2014,17(3):15-26

[29] Busse J A,Green T C.Market efficiency in real time[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2002,65(3):415-437.

[30] Barndorff-Nielsen O E,Shephard N.Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation[J].Journal of Financial Econometrics,2006;4(1):1-30.

[31] Jiang G J,Oomen R C A.Testing for jumps when asset prices are observed with noise-a "swap variance" approach[J].Journal of Econometrics,2008,144(2):352-370.

[32] Andersen T G,Bollerslev T,Dobrev D.No-arbitrage semi-martingale restrictions for continuous-time volatility models subject to leverage effects,jumps,and i.i.d.noise:Theory and testable distributional implications[J].Journal of Econometrics,2007,138(1):125-180.

[33] Ait-Sahalia Y,Jacod J.Testing for jumps in a discretely observed process[J].Annals of Statistics,2009,37(1):184-222.

[34] Merton R C.Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1976;3(1-2):125-144.

[35] Maheu J,McCurdy T H.News arrival,jump dynamics,and volatility components for individual stock returns[J].Journal of Finance,2004,59(2):755-793.

[36] Protter P.Stochastic integration and differential equations:A new approach[M].New York:Spinger,2004.

[37] Lee S.Jumps and information flow in financial markets[J].Review of Financial Studies,2012,25(2):439-479.

[38] Ivkovic Z,Jegadeesh N.The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2004,73(3):433-463.
文章导航

/