应急物资调配是应急管理中一个重要的课题，准确、高效的应急物资调配方案是决定应急救援的成功的关键，然而应急情况下信息的不确定性增加了物资调配问题的难度。本文以应急物资调配的不确定性处理作为重点，研究地震发生后的应急物资调配方案。本文将应急救援过程按灾情信息获知程度分为黑箱期（仅知道震级、震中的时期）与灰箱期（各地震害指数依次更新的时期）。黑箱期根据历史地震灾情数据得到相应的离散情景集，并基于此使用鲁棒规划建模。在灰箱期阶段，本文根据震害指数更新烈度圈及各受灾点的物资需求，计算未满足率，从而决定是否进行新一次的配送，使用数学规划求解配送方案。最后，本文以鲁甸地震的实际数据为例进行分析验证了模型的有效性。
Emergency supplies allocation is an important problem in emergency management. However, uncertain information of the disaster makes it hard to allot materials accurately and efficiently.In this paper, by focusing on the description and update of uncertain information, emergency supplies allocation strategy when earthquake occurs is studied. To describe the disaster, five factors are selected and different situations are constructed based on historical data. The information update process is described as the acknowledgement of the probability of each factor. Based on the updating of disaster information, the rescue process is divided into 2 stages: black stage and grey stage. In black stage, deciders only know magnitude and epicenter of this earthquake, therefore a robust model based on different situations is built. This model generates a robust result that considers the worst situation. Also, in this stage, historical information is used to generate situations to support robust model. In grey stage, damage index of each area updates successively, so that seismic intensity circle can be updated accordingly, and because of which, demand for each kind of material of each area can be updated. Then unsatisfying rate is computed, and a programming model is proposed for following supply allocation. Finally, by comparing our model against a model without information updating, experiment results show that our model has its advantages.
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