荐股评级出现乐观倾向，是当前全球证券分析师行业存在的一个突出问题。基于欺诈三角理论，本研究从压力、机会和合理化解释三方面对分析师荐股评级乐观倾向成因进行了理论分析，并以2010～2012年间中国证券分析师发布的21054个荐股评级数据为研究对象进行了实证检验。结果表明机构投资者持股比例越高，证券分析师越倾向于发布乐观的评级报告，而且在乐观评级情况下，分析师所推荐股票达到或者超过其预测的概率越高。本文的研究有利于投资者更为科学地审视分析师的荐股评级，并为监管部门提供政策参考。
Optimism existing in stock recommendation is a prominent problem in present global security analyst industry. Based on the fraud triangle theory, the causes are analyzed theoretically from the viewpoints of pressure, chance and rationalized explanation in this research, and then empirical tests based on the 21054 collected recommendation samples issued by Chinese security analysts during 2010 to 2012 are carried out. Results show that the higher of institutional investors holding, the more likely analysts will release optimistic recommendations, and moreover, the higher probability of recommended stock reaching or exceeding their forecast. This research facilitates investors' scientific inspection to analysts' recommendations and provides a reference to regulatory authorities.
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