本文通过引入使用可替代能源生产的中间产品,构建能源约束和碳排放约束下的内生经济增长模型,并运用全局向量自回归(GVAR)模型,实证分析了具有空间关联性的中国各省(区市)能源消费控制对经济增长和碳排放的动态影响。研究结果表明:在不影响经济增长且受碳排放约束条件下完成能源消费总量考核的目标,可以通过研发可再生能源、提高碳排放清洁技术水平、增加碳基能源的边际产出等实现;能源消费总量的考核目标对能源消费强依赖地区约束性较强,对其余地区的约束力较弱,其余地区可节能潜力较强;能源结构逆向调整的存在使得控制能源消费总量对少部分省(区市)无法达到减排效果。进一步地,本文实证分析了目前节能减排实施过程中可能存在的问题:科技进步对能源结构顺向调整效果不显著、可再生新能源的研究效率低下,技术进步对碳排放清洁方面无显著效果;依靠传统能源价格的调整虽能有效减排却会抑制经济增长。
In this paper, an endogenous growth model with dual constraints of energy consumption and carbon emission is developed by introducing both, a non-renewable energy and a renewable energy, which can both serve for intermediates. And the global vector auto regression(GVAR)model is established with spatial correlation to analyze the dynamic impact on economic growth and carbon emissions by controlling energy consumption of every province of China.The results show that by using renewable energy, improving cleaner technologies and the marginal output of non-renewable energy, the goal of energy consumption assessment can be achieved, under the constraints of reducing carbon emissions and promoting economic growth.The goal of energy consumption has a strong constraint to provinces consuming more energy but a weak constraint to others, which have greater potential to energy conservation.Because the structure of the energy consumption adjusts against the tide, the carbon emission is not decreasing in some provinces. Furthermore, the problems in the process of reducing energy consumption are tried to be found. The results show that technology research has little effect on adjusting the structure ofenergy consumption and finding renewable energy. And technology research also has little effect on reducing carbon emission.Although relying on the adjustment of traditional energy price can reduce the carbon emission but this would limit economic growth.
[1] Stiglitz J. Growth with exhaustible natural resources: Efficient and optimal growth paths[J]. The Review of Economic Studies, 1974, 41: 123-137.
[2] Dasgupta P, Heal G. The optimal depletion of exhaustible resources[J]. The Review of Economic Studies, 1974: 3-28.
[3] Hartwick J M. Intergenerational equity and the investing of rents from exhaustible resources[J]. The american economic review, 1977, 67(5): 972-974.
[4] 王海建. 资源约束、环境污染与内生经济增长[J]. 复旦学报(社会科学版), 2000, (01): 76-80.
[5] 王庆晓, 崔玉泉, 张延港. 环境和能源约束下的内生经济增长模型[J]. 山东大学学报(理学版), 2009, (02): 52-55.
[6] Kraft J, Kraft A. Relationship between energy and GNP[J].Journal of Energy and Development, 1978, 3(2):401-403.
[7] Apergis N, Payne J E. Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model[J]. Energy Economics, 2009, 31(2): 211-216.
[8] Pao H, Tsai C. CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(12): 7850-7860.
[9] 赵新刚, 刘平阔.经济增长与能源强度:基于面板平滑转换回归模型的实证分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(6):103-113.
[10] 胡宗义, 刘亦文, 唐李伟. 中国能源消费, 碳排放与经济增长关系的实证研究[J]. 湖南大学学报: 自然科学版, 2012, 39(7): 84-88.
[11] 刘先涛, 石俊. 中国能源消费与经济增长的向量自回归模型检验分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2014, (10): 128-130.
[12] Hwang J, Yoo S. Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: Evidence from Indonesia[J]. Quality & Quantity, 2014, 48(1): 63-73.
[13] Pereira R M M, Pereira A M. Is fuel-switching a no-regrets environmental policy?: VAR evidence on carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic performance in Portugal[J]. Energy Economics, 2010, 32(1): 227-242.
[14] 巴曙松, 吴大义. 能源消费、二氧化碳排放与经济增长——基于二氧化碳减排成本视角的实证分析[J]. 经济与管理研究, 2010, (06): 5-11.
[15] 林伯强, 姚昕, 刘希颖. 节能和碳排放约束下的中国能源结构战略调整[J]. 中国社会科学, 2010, (1): 58-71.
[16] 蔡圣华, 牟敦国, 方梦祥. 二氧化碳强度减排目标下我国产业结构优化的驱动力研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2011, 19(4): 167-173.
[17] 赵金楼, 李根, 苏屹, 等. 我国能源效率地区差异及收敛性分析——基于随机前沿分析和面板单位根的实证研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(2): 175-184.
[18] 薛澜, 刘冰, 戚淑芳. 能源回弹效应的研究进展及其政策涵义[J]. 中国人口. 资源与环境, 2011, 21(10): 55-59.
[19] 胡秋阳. 回弹效应与能源效率政策的重点产业选择[J]. 经济研究, 2014, 49(2): 128-140.
[20] 林伯强, 何晓萍. 中国油气资源耗减成本及政策选择的宏观经济影响[J]. 经济研究, 2008, (05): 94-104.
[21] 刘世锦, 张永生. 全球温室气体减排:理论框架和解决方案[J]. 经济研究, 2009, (03): 4-13.
[22] 刘伟, 李虹. 中国煤炭补贴改革与二氧化碳减排效应研究[J]. 经济研究, 2014, 49(8): 146-157.
[23] 吴玉鸣, 李建霞. 中国省域能源消费的空间计量经济分析[J]. 中国人口.资源与环境, 2008, 18(3): 93-98.
[24] 陈青青, 龙志和. 中国省级CO2排放影响因素的空间计量分析[J]. 中国人口.资源与环境, 2011, 21(11): 15-20.
[25] Pesaran M H, Schuermann T, Weiner S M. Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2004, 22(2): 129-162.
[26] 张红, 李洋, 张洋. 中国经济增长对国际能源消费和碳排放的动态影响——基于33个国家GVAR模型的实证研究[J]. 清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2014, (01): 14-25.
[27] 单豪杰. 中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2008, 25(10): 17-31.
[28] Koop G, Pesaran M H, Potter S M. Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1996, 74(1): 119-147.
[29] Pesaran H H, Shin Y. Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models[J]. Economics Letters, 1998, 58(1): 17-29.
