随着人口老龄化进程加剧和新型农村社会养老保险制度全面覆盖,农村老年人群与养老需求激增,农村养老金收支失衡与不可持续风险快速加大。本文基于新农保筹资和给付的双重视角,应用总体法构建农村养老金收支与平衡精算模型,基于全国东、中、西部三省六县(市、区)新农保试点地区实地调研数据(有效问卷5031份),通过甄选并调整关键参数,预测农村养老金收支及差额变化与发展趋势,对其可持续性进行仿真研究,针对预测结果提出增强农村养老金可持续性的改革思路。研究结果表明,政策参数缴费率、补贴率和经济参数农民收入增长率、基金投资收益率的提高及其联动增长均有利于增强农村养老金的可持续性,而养老金计发月数的增减对农村养老金可持续性的影响方向并不统一,二者的联合增长对农村养老金的长期可持续性发展具有积极作用。本研究对于丰富、发展农村养老金精算建模与仿真理论、方法及农村社会保障制度完善、政策改进具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。
With the intensified process of population aging (ageing population) and the comprehensive covering of the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance, rural elderly population and pension surge in demand increase, and rural pension payments imbalance and unsustainable risk rapidly increase. According to pension financing and payment, rural pension income, expenditure and balance actuarial models with entirety method are constructed, and the rural pension change and trend are predicted by selecting and adjusting key parameters based on the investigation data (effective questionnaire = 5031)of six experimental counties (city or district)in three provinces in east, middle and west China where the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance carried out, and its sustainability with simulation studies are analyzed, and some basic reform ideas are proposed to enhancing the sustainability of rural pension according to the forecasting results in this paper. The results show that the increase of policy parameters such as payment rate and subsidy rate, economic parameters such as farmers' income growth rate and fund investment rate and their linkage growth are conducive to enhance the sustainability of rural pension, while the increase or decrease in the pay time of the pension has uniform affected on the sustainability of rural pension, their combined growth has a positive effect on long-term sustainability of the rural pension. This research has the important theoretical significance and practical value to rich and develop the theory and method of rural pension actual modeling and simulation and to improve system and policy of rural social security.
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