企业存货调整策略的准确识别是有效管理通胀预期的必要条件。本文基于非线性交互效应面板误差纠正模型、从微观层面研究在通胀周期不同阶段,企业存货调整的具体特征。实证结果与反事实对比仿真实验均表明:主导企业存货策略性调整的是通胀预期而不是实际通胀水平。与社会的经验判定不同,企业存货调整对通胀表现出逆周期特征。对大部分行业而言,低通胀阶段,通胀预期的收益效应强于存货调整的成本效应,货币调控无效;高通胀阶段,通胀预期弱化,成本效应凸显,货币调控才有效。两种机制的阈值通胀率约为3.4%,所以,将通胀调控上限定为3.5%符合企业市场行为的特征。各行业存货策略对货币调控、通胀预期的灵敏度有显著差异,房地产、批发零售、机械设备较为敏感,最不敏感的是食品行业。
Identificating firms inventories' adjustment strategies exactly is the necessary condition of effectively managing inflation expectation. From the micro level, based on the Smooth transition panel error correction model with interactive effects, the specific characteristics of firms inventories adjustment in the different stages of inflation cycle are investigated in this paper. The empirical findings and the counterfactual comparative simulation experiments show that, the adjustment strategies of firms inventories are mainly affected by inflation expectation rather than actual inflation. Unlike the social experience, the adjustment of firms inventories owns the characteristic of counter-inflation cycle. To the most industries, the monetary policies are invalid in low inflation stage, owing to the income effect of inflation expectation surpasses the cost effect of firms inventories adjustment;under the background of high inflation period, the monetary policies have an effect on the adjustment of firms inventories, as a result of the weaker inflation expectation and the significant cost effect. The threshold of inflation mechanism is 3.4%, so setting 3.5% as the up-limit inflation adjustment accords with characteristics of firm market behaviors. The sensitivity of inventories strategies shows significant difference on monetary regulation and inflation expectation in different industries, the real estate, wholesale and retail, machinery and equipment industries are much more sensitive than the food service industry.
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