随着Web2.0时代的到来,网络媒体已成为公共危机及其风险传播的主要途径,舆论危机的形成和演化也成为日益突出的社会风险问题。其中,网络舆论的蔓延过程及其机理的研究是舆论危机研究的重点,并逐渐受到学者的关注和社会的重视。本文以舆论危机的蔓延机理为研究对象,通过收集和梳理近年来发生的20起网络舆论危机事件,对舆论蔓延的基本内涵、表现形式和驱动因素等进行系统总结。随后,以蔓延驱动因素的研究为指导,考虑蔓延的"内部影响因子"和"外部影响因子"等,构建舆论蔓延扩散的一般性模型,并对模型的极值点和拐点等进行剖析。最后,本文以"7·23甬温动车事故"为例,对其网络舆论的蔓延扩散模型进行拟合、回归和分析。
Since the arrival of the Web2.0 era, network media become a key approach of public crisis and risk transmission. In this context, the formation and evolution of public opinion crisis is a serious problem nowadays, which attracts much more attention from the whole society. Therefore, spread mechanism of network public opinion crisis is choosed as the research object. After collecting and sorting 20 public opinion crisis incidents in recent years, the basic concepts, expression forms, driving factors, and specific patterns of public opinion spread are systematically summarized. Then, the spread and diffusion model of network public opinion is built, which completely considers the internal and external impact factors of spread mechanism. Besides, the extreme point and inflection point of the spread and diffusion model are also discussed. In the case study section, 723 Wenzhou Train Crash and its public opinion crisis are fitted and analyzed by using the public opinion spread and diffusion model.
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