运用ARFIMA-FIAPARCH-skst模型对沪深300指数和香港恒生指数建立收益-波动模型, 然后结合估计的参数对模型进行修正以确立最终模型, 排除金融市场典型事实对相依关系的影响, 进而运用由Clayton、Frank和Gumbel组成的混合copula模型对相依结构进行建模。研究结果表明:内地市场和香港市场均未观察到显著的杠杆效应;由Clayton、Frank和Gumbel组成的混合Copula模型能够准确地描述两个市场之间的相依结构, 且两个市场下尾相依关系要强于上尾的相依关系, 通过动态混合copula也验证了这一明显的非对称关系。
The ARFIMA-FIAPARCH-skst model is applied to establish return-volatility model to CSI300 and HIS. Then the parameter estimated is combined to revise model to confine the final model and get rid of the effect of dependence relation from stylized facts in financial market. And then the mixed copula model made of Clayton, Frank and Gumbel is applied to establish a model of dependence structure. The result of the research indicates that evident of leverage effects found by the existing research hasn't been observed by local market and HongKong market. Moreover, the mixed copula model made of Clayton, Frank and Gumbel can describe the dependence structure between two markets accurately and the dependence relation of lower tail of two markets is stronger than the dependence relation of upper tail. Besides, the time varying mixed-copula also indicates that there is an obvious asymmetric dependence relationship.
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