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人工智能、居民消费与经济奇点——基于优化再分配政策的视角

葛伟,肖涵   

  1. 兰州大学
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-29 修回日期:2022-09-21 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 肖涵

Artificial Intelligence, Household Consumption and Economic Singularity: Based on the Perspective of Optimizing Redistribution Policy

  • Received:2022-03-29 Revised:2022-09-21 Published:2022-09-27

摘要: 人工智能在原有生产资料基础上创造出更多财富同时,也会导致失业、收入不平等等社会问题,甚至冲击居民消费影响经济稳健增长,因此有必要探究再分配政策的调解作用。本文通过构建含有人工智能和再分配政策的动态一般均衡模型,研究人工智能对经济奇点的影响以及再分配政策的调解作用。研究结果显示:(1)如果没有人工智能,随着我国资本累积导致的资本边际产出效率下降,以及老龄化降低了劳动力数量,经济发展将陷入持续低迷,难以达到经济奇点状态。(2)人工智能使我国经济于2070年前达到奇点状态,而且人工智能技术越早成熟,达到经济奇点的时间节点也越早。(3)人工智能通过提高生产过程中的智能化和自动化,以及居民消费,促进经济奇点的尽早实现。(4)再分配政策会延迟经济奇点的到来,且新征税率每多4%,投资率下降2%左右,但人工智能技术越早成熟对该不利影响的对冲作用越强。有鉴于此,我国应大力发展“新基建”全面促进人工智能技术进步,优化再分配政策体系,增加居民有效消费以及提升政府综合治理能力,实现共同富裕目标。

关键词: 人工智能, 居民消费, 经济奇点, 共同富裕, 再分配政策

Abstract: Artificial Intelligence creates more wealth based on the original means of production and causes social problems such as unemployment and income inequality to impact household consumption and affect the steady economic growth. It is necessary to explore the mediation role of redistribution policies. In this paper, by constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model with Artificial Intelligence and redistribution policies, it studies the influence of Artificial Intelligence on economic singularities and the mediation effect of redistribution policies. The research results show that: (1) Without Artificial Intelligence, as China’s capital accumulation leads to a decline in the efficiency of the marginal output of capital, and aging reduces the number of laborers, economic development will fall into a continuous downturn and it will be difficult to reach an economic singularity. (2) Artificial Intelligence has brought China’s economy to a singularity state before 2070, and the earlier Artificial Intelligence technology matures, the earlier the time node will reach the economic singularity. (3) Artificial Intelligence significantly improves the efficiency of capital marginal output by improving the intelligence and automation of the production process, reduces the capital output ratio, increases the social consumption rate, and promotes the early realization of the economic singularity. (4) The “reduce expenditure” redistribution policy can bring the economic singularity about 5 years ahead of schedule, and the investment rate will increase by about 2%. The “open source” redistribution policy will delay the arrival of the economic singularity, and the new tax rate will increase investment by 10%. The rate dropped by about 2%, but the earlier the Artificial Intelligence technology matures, the stronger the hedging effect on this adverse effect. In view of this, China should vigorously develop "new infrastructure" to comprehensively promote the progress of artificial intelligence technology, optimize the redistribution policy system, increase the effective consumption of residents, and enhance the government's comprehensive governance capabilities to achieve the goal of Common Prosperity.

Key words: Artificial Intelligence, Housing Consumption, Economic Singularity, Common Prosperity, Redistributive Policy