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非金融企业部门债务与资源配置优化——基于动态一般均衡模型的量化分析

戚逸康   

  1. 中国人民银行营业管理部
  • 收稿日期:2021-05-17 修回日期:2022-09-21 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 戚逸康

Nonfinancial Corporate Debt and Resource Allocation Optimization——A Quantitative Analysis Based on the Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

  • Received:2021-05-17 Revised:2022-09-21 Published:2022-09-27

摘要: 在债务(高杠杆)问题尚未完全解决的情况之下,我国经济还面临着结构失衡和增速放缓的局面。债务和经济增长的双重压力倒逼对两者内在联系的研究需要进一步深入。动态一般均衡模型分析显示,债务通过在生产效率不同的经济参与者之间优化资源配置,促进资本积累和产出增加,社会福利进而提高。在强制性偿还的条件下,生产均衡条件决定了债务的上限,但在非强制性偿还的条件下,“不太紧”债务上限和生产均衡条件共同决定债务上限。数值模拟显示,债务资本比和资本存量之间呈现出稳健的正U型关系。目前我们国家35%的“非金融企业部门债务资本比”水平高于数值模拟下的最优水平,所以政策导向上应坚持去杠杆,但是,资源错配或资源配置无效率问题需要给予重视。

关键词: 非金融企业部门债务, 搜索理论, 信贷约束, 杠杆率

Abstract: As the debt/high leverage problem has not yet been completely resolved, China's economy is still facing a situation of structural imbalance and slowing growth rate. The dual pressures of debt and economic growth demand further in-depth study of the theoretical relationship between the two. The analysis of the dynamic general equilibrium model shows that debt optimizes the allocation of resources among participants with different production efficiencies, promotes capital accumulation and output, and social welfare is thus improved. Under the condition of mandatory repayment, the production equilibrium condition determines the upper limit of debt, but under the condition of non-mandatory repayment, the "not too tight" debt ceiling and the production equilibrium condition jointly determine the debt limit. Numerical simulations show that the debt-to-capital ratio and the capital stock present a robust positive U-shaped relationship. At present, China's nonfinancial corporate debt-to-capital ratio is about 35%, which is higher than the optimal level, so policymakers should insist on deleveraging. But the problem of resource misallocation needs to be paid attention to.

Key words: nonfinancial corporate debt, the search theory, credit constraint, leverage rate