中国普惠金融对产业结构的非线性影响：基于PSTR的实证分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1039

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 作为中国经济政策改革的一项重要措施，普惠金融旨在有效、全方位地为社会所有阶层和群体提供金融服务，对包括产业结构在内的诸多经济指标的发展具有重要的影响。本文基于Sarma(2008)提出的普惠金融指标体系，测算了2005-2017年我国31个省市自治区的普惠金融指数，在此基础上，运用面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型探究普惠金融对产业结构合理化和高级化的非线性影响。研究表明，样本期内我国普惠金融发展水平呈现区域性差异，东部地区的普惠金融指数明显高于中西部地区。普惠金融的发展显著降低了产业结构偏离经济均衡状态的程度，对产业结构合理化和高级化有显著的促进作用，且这种作用表现出显著的非线性特征。当普惠金融指数大于0.2402时，普惠金融的发展对产业结构合理化的促进作用逐渐加强；当普惠金融指数大于0.5914时，普惠金融的发展对产业结构高级化的促进作用明显加强。同时，普惠金融对产业结构升级的影响存在区域异质性，普惠金融对东部、中部地区的产业结构升级有显著的促进作用，但对西部地区无显著影响。此外，本文采用系统GMM方法对模型进行稳健性检验，结论仍然成立。

关键词: 普惠金融；产业结构；区域异质性；PSTR模型；系统GMM

Abstract: As an economic policy reform in China, financial inclusion aims to effectively provide financial services for all social classes and groups, thereby exerting positive influences on the development of many economic indices, including industrial structure. Based on the index of financial inclusion (IFI) system proposed by Sarma (2008), the IFI of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2017 is measured. On this basis, the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model is used to explore the nonlinear effect of financial inclusion on the industrial structure rationalization (CSR) and industrial structure advancement (CSA). The results show regional differences in the development level of financial inclusion in China during the sample period. The IFIs in the eastern region are significantly higher than those in the central and western regions. Financial inclusion can markedly decrease the degree to which the industrial structure deviates from the economic equilibrium state. At the same time, it significantly promotes the degrees of CSR and CSA.Moreover, this effect shows significant nonlinear characteristics. When the IFI is greater than 0.2402, the promotion effect of the development of financial inclusion on the degree of CSR is gradually strengthened. When the IFI is greater than 0.5914, the promotion effect of the development of financial inclusion on the degree of CSA is strengthened. Meanwhile, there is regional heterogeneity in the industrial structure upgrading of financial inclusion. Financial inclusion has a significant promoting effect on the industrial structure upgrading of eastern and central regions. However, it has no noticeable effect on western regions. In addition, a robustness test was applied to the model by utilizing the system generalized method of moment (GMM), proving that the conclusions remain tenable.

Key words: financial inclusion; industrial structure; regional heterogeneity; PSTR model; system-GMM.

中图分类号:

F832
F121.3

王正新, 李丹丹,. 中国普惠金融对产业结构的非线性影响：基于PSTR的实证分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(8): 69-81.

WANG Zheng-xin, LI Dan-dan,. Nonlinear Effects of Financial Inclusion on the Industrial Structure in China: An Empirical Analysis Based on a PSTR Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(8): 69-81.

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