关键词: 城镇化, 现代服务业, 流通业, 旅游业, PVAR模型

Abstract: China is at a crucial stage of deepening urbanization. This revolutionary change which is going on in China cannot be fully explained by "industrial determinism", as service industry is playing an increasingly important role in it. As important pillar industries of the national economy as well as guide industries of modern service industry, circulation industry and tourism industry are boosting the urbanization in a steady and noticeable manner, thanks to their strengths of efficient agglomeration, high industrial contribution and capable of offering more jobs. Also, the two industries have strong urban economic function and service function, hence constituting an indispensable part of the urban industrial system and public service. In light of those facts, one of the major issues related to the study of urbanization drivers in China is supposed to involve whether circulation and tourism industries can make urbanization sustainable or not and how big their driving force can be in the years to come.
Based on PVAR model and synergy theory, an empirical analysis of the coupling interaction between circulation and tourism industries and urbanization is made by picking out the panel data of the entire country from 2005 to 2016. Firstly, a theoretical analysis is conducted on the interaction mechanism between them. Secondly, a PVAR model of the three is established on the basis of theoretical analysis, for the purpose of analyzing the causal relationship of the three by means of Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. Finally, the coupling coordination evaluation model is set up by referring to synergy theory, and an empirical evaluation of the interaction strength and the coupling coordination development level among the three is conducted on the levels of nation, region and industries, and concluded with modes of coordinated development. The research reveals that:(1) There exists a stable equilibrium relationship between circulation and tourism industries and urbanization, and the former two turn out to be the long-term driver for the latter. However, there are regional differences. (2) In the early days, the under-developed circulation and tourism industries lagged far behind the urbanization which was mainly driven by industrialization, and the gap gradually narrowed down later. The coupling coordination development level of three systems has been continuously improved. But there are regional variances, with the development level of eastern region the highest, that of the central region in the middle, and that of the western region the lowest. (3) The coupling coordination development process mode is summarized by classifying it into the evolutionary convergence and development synchronization. The development level of each system in development synchronization type is relatively consistent, which is conducive to raising the coupling coordination development level at a fast rate. The industrial perspective of the study of urbanization drivers in China is enriched, and the empirical method adopted in this paper can solve endogeneity. This paper can be of great help in facilitating the readers' understanding of the internal coupling mechanism between circulation and tourism industries and urbanization, so as to provide a basis for formulating corresponding industrial policies. As well as that, it can promote deep integration of them, boost high-quality urbanization and contribute to the industrial transformation and upgrading.

Key words: urbanization, modern service industry, circulation industry, tourism industry, PVAR model