主管：中国科学院
主办：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
　　　中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (10): 72-79.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.10.008

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于情景分析的应急装备多层级协同布局问题研究

蔡冬雪, 朱建明, 王国庆   

  1. 中国科学院大学工程科学学院, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-30 修回日期:2017-02-27 出版日期:2017-10-20 发布日期:2017-12-15
  • 通讯作者: 朱建明(1979-),男(汉族),山东宁阳人,中国科学院大学工程科学学院副教授,研究方向:应急管理、运筹学、网络优化,E-mail:jmzhu@ucas.ac.cn E-mail:jmzhu@ucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目（91324012，91024031）

Hierarchical Collaborative Location and Allocation of Emergency Equipment Based on Scenario Analysis

CAI Dong-xue, ZHU Jian-ming, WANG Guo-qing   

  1. School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2016-06-30 Revised:2017-02-27 Online:2017-10-20 Published:2017-12-15

PDF (PC)

762

摘要： 应急装备的布局决策对灾后的救援效率有巨大的影响。应急装备的储备布局大多以行政隶属结构为基础，进行资源的选址和配置，因此，资源的布局决策也具有明显的层级结构特征。本文针对现有应急装备的储备管理模式中存在的实际问题，比如未考虑储备点的应急能力差异而进行的统一均匀配置，导致资源利用效率低下，而未能满足灾害后的响应要求使得造成不必要的损失等问题。文章基于应急响应的时效性、经济性的要求和固有的层级结构，对应急装备的层级选址和配置问题进行研究，比较了现有管理模式中的布局决策方法和层级协同储备布局方法，建立了情景分析下的多目标多层级协同布局模型。最后，对云南省地震灾害情景下的电力应急装备的布局问题进行了案例分析。考虑到灾害情景中装备需求数量的不确定性，本文通过建立回归模型对地震受灾人口进行计算分析，从而估算地震情景中的装备需求数量这一关键情景要素，结合历史地震数据生成大量地震灾害情景，然后对大规模情景下的布局模型进行求解，并将协同布局决策结果与统一均匀布局的方式以及云南省现有的实际布局方式进行对比。经过分析各种决策模式的适用性，指出大规模应急响应的准备过程更应当从层级单位间的协同合作视角来洞察和研究应急装备的布局问题。

关键词: 情景分析, 多层级协同布局, 应急装备

Abstract: The location and allocation decision of the emergency equipment directly affects the efficiency and effectiveness of disaster relief, which is mainly based on the administrative division structure considering the relationship of administrative affiliation. So, focus in put on the collaborative allocation mechanism in hierarchical location and allocation problem of emergency equipment, also comparing to the widely existing decision-making methods in realistic management, like an equally distributed pattern. Taking the effectiveness of timeliness and economy into account, a hierarchical collaborative location and allocation model is formulated, which is an integer programming based on scenario analysis. The model combines the hierarchical emergency capability characteristic with multiple emergency scenarios, aiming to find the most acceptable layout decision to mitigate the worst impact. By historical earthquake disaster of Yunnan Province, a regression model of earthquake-affected population is estimated to provide a prediction of the equipment demand quantity in each generated earthquake scenario. Based on above, the bi-objective integer programming is solved using YALMIP. To conclude the strengths and weakness of the two patterns mentioned before, They are compared to the existing location and allocation layout in reality as well. The paper delved into the collaborative characteristics in hierarchical location and allocation of emergency equipment and stressed that the application of collaborative mechanism should be promoted further.

Key words: scenario analysis, hierarchical collaborative location and allocation, emergency equipment

中图分类号: