考虑复杂关联情境的城市典型生命线运行风险因素识别方法研究

中国管理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (8): 130-140.

考虑复杂关联情境的城市典型生命线运行风险因素识别方法研究

索玮岚, 陈锐

中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 北京 100190

收稿日期:2012-05-28 修回日期:2013-02-20 出版日期:2014-08-20 发布日期:2014-08-23
作者简介:索玮岚（1982- ），女（汉族），河北磁县人，中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所，助理研究员，博士后，研究方向：城市生命线运行风险管理.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71301159）；中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目（20110490608）；国家科技支撑计划资助项目（2012BAK27B02）；中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所重大任务B类专项（Y201161Z04）

Study on Identification Method for Risk Factors of Urban Typical Lifeline Operation Considering a Complex Interdependent Context

SUO Wei-lan, Chen Rui

Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Received:2012-05-28 Revised:2013-02-20 Online:2014-08-20 Published:2014-08-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 城市典型生命线以供热、电力、燃气系统为代表，具有公共性强、风险性高、关联性显著的特点。研究城市典型生命线运行风险因素识别问题对于相关部门防范风险具有重要意义，但现实中由多系统、多风险因素以及各类关联形成的复杂关联情境增加了解决该问题的难度。为此，本文首先构建了具有层级网络结构的风险因素识别框架，然后提出了一种考虑复杂关联情境的风险因素识别方法，将各专家针对系统关联和风险因素关联给出的语言评价信息转化为二元语义，并将决策试验与评价实验室（DEMATEL）法和Two-Additive Choquet（TAC）积分算子扩展到二元语义环境，进而实现各类关联的综合集成，从而确定风险因素的排序和归类，便于决策者研判风险根源、明晰风险因素本质。最后，以北京某样区为例验证了所提方法的潜在应用价值，并根据识别结果制定了针对性的风险防范策略，能够为相关部门联调联动开展风险防范提供决策支持。

关键词: 城市典型生命线, 风险因素识别, 复杂关联情境, 二元语义, 决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)法, Two-Additive Choquet(TAC)积分算子

Abstract: Heating, electricity and gas systems are representatives of urban typical lifeline with the characteristics of strong publicness, high risk and significant interdependence. Research on the problem of risk factor identification for the operation of urban typical lifeline has a very important significance for relevant departments to prevent risk. However, a complex interdependent context formed by multiple systems, multiple risk factors and several interdependences in reality increases the difficulty of solving the mentioned problem. Thus, a framework for risk factor identification with hierarchical network structure is firstly constructed in this paper. Then, a method for risk factor identification considering the complex interdependent context is proposed. In the method, linguistic assessment information on system interdependence and risk factor interdependence provided by experts are converted into two-tuple linguistics. Through extending the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method and Two-Additive Choquet (TAC) integral operator to two-tuple linguistic environment, several interdependences are integrated comprehensively. Furthermore, the rank and classification of risk factors are determined to help decision makers judge risk source and distinct the essences of risk factors. Finally, an example in Beijing is used to illustrate the potential application value of the proposed method, and the targeted measures for risk prevention are given according to the identification results. This study provides a decision support for relevant departments to conduct risk prevention collaboratively.

Key words: urban typical lifeline, risk factor identification, complex interdependent context, two-tuple linguistics, Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method, Two-Additive Choquet (TAC) integral operator

中图分类号:

C94
C934

索玮岚, 陈锐. 考虑复杂关联情境的城市典型生命线运行风险因素识别方法研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(8): 130-140.

SUO Wei-lan, Chen Rui. Study on Identification Method for Risk Factors of Urban Typical Lifeline Operation Considering a Complex Interdependent Context[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(8): 130-140.

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