主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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中国管理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (2): 159-166.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

工业化过程中碳排放消费建设比的演变规律研究

张毅1,2, 夏炎1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心, 北京 100190;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2011-06-30 修回日期:2012-02-19 出版日期:2012-04-29 发布日期:2012-04-25
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05150700);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70825001,71133005)

How CO2 Emissions Structure Evolves With the Process of Industrialization

ZHANG Yi1,2, XIA Yan1   

  1. 1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2011-06-30 Revised:2012-02-19 Online:2012-04-29 Published:2012-04-25

摘要: 本文从历史发展角度动态地考察了由投资和消费引发CO2排放的变化规律,提出了碳排放中的消费型排放、建设型排放和消费建设比的概念,利用环境投入产出分析模型(EE-IOA)估计了处于不同工业化发展阶段的32个国家86组数据的消费型排放和建设型排放,得到了消费建设比在工业化过程中(包括后工业化时期)的演变规律。实证结果表明:随着工业化水平的提高,消费建设比呈上升趋势;应根据消费型排放和建设型排放的减排潜力,科学制定减排目标,更加注重引导消费者行为向绿色消费转变、依靠消费者力量促进企业节能减排。本研究对正确评价不同工业化发展阶段国家的排放水平和减排潜力,科学制定减排政策和目标具有重要意义。

关键词: CO2排放, 工业化水平, 经济发展阶段, 投入产出技术, 消费建设比

Abstract: In order to dynamically investigate the historical evolution of CO2 emissions induced by consumption and fixed capital investment, this paper defines the concepts of consumption-based CO2 emissions (CPE) and construction-based CO2 emissions (CTE), and proposes the ratio of consumption-based CO2 emissions to construction-based CO2 emissions (RCC) as a partial indicator of the CO2 emissions structure which synchronously considers the consumption-based CO2 emissions and construction-based CO2 emissions. The study employs an environmentally extended input-output analysis model (EE-IOA) to estimate the carbon emissions of consumption-based CO2 and construction-based CO2. By analyzing data totaling 86 samples from 32 countries, the study evaluates the evolution of RCC during the process of industrialization (including post-industrialization period). The empirical results indicate that RCC increases with the advance of industrialization; we should set the carbon emission reduction goals that considering the reduction potentials of consumption-based CO2 emissions and construction-based CO2 emissions, and enhance the enterprise carbon emission reduction activity by the market power through transforming consumer’s consumption habit into low-carbon. The significant outcome of this paper is the development of a method for correctly evaluating the emissions levels of countries at different stages of development, in order to establish reasonable emissions reduction targets.

Key words: dioxide carbon emissions, industrialization level, stage of economic development, input-output technique, ratio of consumption-based CO2 emissions to construction-based CO2 emissions

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