关键词: 供应链, 长鞭效应, 滑动平均, 预测误差

Abstract: This paper makes a quantitative analysis on the alleviation of bullwhip effect in supply chain through collaborative forecasting.It shows the positive impact that collaborative forecasting utilized by members of a mul-ti-stage supply chain havs on order release quantity variation and demand forecast error variation.Based on the-oretical study and numerical analysis,this paper demonstrates that such fluctuations can be controlled through ef-fective information sharing and collaborative forecasting within the supply chain.

Key words: supply chain, bullwhip effect, moving average, forecasting error