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中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2009, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 148-155.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

研发项目过程风险管理方法综合集成问题研究

王长峰1,2   

  1. 1. 北京邮电大学经济管理学院, 北京100876;
    2. 华中科技大学公共管理学院, 湖北武汉430074
  • 收稿日期:2008-05-05 修回日期:2009-07-10 出版日期:2009-08-30 发布日期:2009-08-30
  • 作者简介:王长峰(1965- ),男(汉族),湖北省清河县人,北京邮电大学经济管理学院教授,项目管理博士(后),研究方向:项目风险与应急管理理论与实践.
  • 基金资助:

    国防科工委“十五”重点基金研究项目(072003A001)

Research On the Integration and Intelligentization Models of the Process Risk Management for the Research and Development Project

WANG Chang-feng1,2   

  1. 1. School of. Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China;
    2. College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2008-05-05 Revised:2009-07-10 Online:2009-08-30 Published:2009-08-30

PDF (PC)

769

被引次数

15

摘要： 针对研发(R&D)项目过程风险特征,重点研究和提出了解决研发(R&D)项目过程风险的"模糊-事件树-故障树"综合集成定量方法,并采用算术平均数方法和加权几何平均数方法修正了"模糊-事件树"与"模糊-故障树"综合集成问题。通过实证研究表明,该定量方法能够有效地解决研发项目过程风险实际问题。

关键词: 研发(R&D)项目, 过程风险, 集成, “模糊-事件树-故障树”

Abstract: Based on the analysis of the characteristics in the process risk management of projects, the author has focused on the Fuzzy-ETA(event tree analysis)-FTA(fault tree analysis) method applied in the process risk management of R&D projects.The author has analyzed the possibility of an integration of EAT-FAT,and solved the problems in the integration of Fuzzy-EAT and Fuzzy-FAT by applying arithmetic average and geometric average, thus solving managerial problems in the process risk management of projects with reliable and effective process risk management guidance. The results are practical guides and importance references for the management of large R&D projects for the Chinese military equipment investments.

Key words: R&D projects, process risk, integration and intelligentization, Fuzzy-ETA-FTA theory

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