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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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中国管理科学 ›› 2008, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 151-156.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

利率期货推出对现货市场的冲击效应——基于香港市场的经验证据

张宗新, 丁振华, 冯亦东   

  1. 复旦大学金融研究院, 上海200433
  • 收稿日期:2007-01-02 修回日期:2008-04-10 出版日期:2008-06-30 发布日期:2008-06-30
  • 作者简介:张宗新(1972- ),男〔汉族),山东淄博人,复旦大学金融研究院副教授,硕士研究生导师,研究方向:金融市场.
  • 基金资助:

    上海证券交易所联合计划课题;国家自然科学基金(70303006)

The Shock Effect of Introducting Interest Rate Futures to Spot Marke:Empirical Evidence from Hong Kong Market

ZHANG Zong-xin, DING Zhen-hua, Feng Yi-dong   

  1. Institute for Financial Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
  • Received:2007-01-02 Revised:2008-04-10 Online:2008-06-30 Published:2008-06-30

摘要: 新兴市场利率期货的引进,对现货市场的动态波动和信息传递一定的冲击效应。本文针对香港市场90天利率期货,应用自回归条件异方差模型(GARCH)和方差比模型(VR),检验利率期货推出前后对现货市场的波动冲击与消息传递效果。实证结果显示,利率期货推出后波动性干扰所造成的影响效果有更快速地向正常水平调整的现象,波动性干扰半衰期大幅减小,但波动率显著增加。同时,利率期货引入后现货市场的收益率序列几乎接近于随机游走过程,所有的信息都立即反映在价格上,信息传递效率提高。

关键词: 利率期货, 信息效率, 波动性冲击

Abstract: Introduction of interest rate futures results in some extent dynamic shock and information transfering in emerging markets.Using Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and variance ratio(VR) model,this paper tests the volatility shock and information transfering effect by 90 days interest rate future in Hong Kong market.The empirical studies releave that shock effect by volatility disturbing moves quickly to normal-adjusted level after introducing interest rate future.The half-life of volatility shocks reduced sharply,but volatility remarkably increased.Menwhile,the return of spot market is close to the process of random walk after introducting interest rate futures,which means the price reflects all information and the efficiency of information transfering is enhanced.

Key words: interest rate futures, information efficiency, volatility shock

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