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"以数治税"如何提升供应链韧性?——基于金税三期准自然实验的证据

慧云, 梅梅, 张永冀   

  1. 北京理工大学会计系, 100081
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-27 修回日期:2026-01-22 接受日期:2026-02-09
  • 通讯作者: 张永冀

How Does “Data-Driven Tax Governance" Enhance Supply chain Resilience? Evidence from the Quasi-Natural Experiment of the Golden Tax Project III

李   

  1. , 100081,
  • Received:2025-08-27 Revised:2026-01-22 Accepted:2026-02-09

摘要: 税收征管数字化作为推动"以数治税"转型的关键改革举措,其治理效应正深度影响着企业运营的各个维度。本文以金税三期实施为准自然实验,运用2008-2023年沪深A股上市公司数据,系统考察税收征管数字化对企业供应链韧性的影响效应及其作用机制。研究发现:税收征管数字化显著提升了企业供应链韧性,该结论通过多种稳健性检验得到验证。机制分析表明,税收征管数字化主要通过提升企业信息透明度和降低代理成本两个渠道发挥作用。异质性检验显示,上述积极效应在制造业企业、市场竞争激烈行业以及税收征管力度较强地区更为显著。本文不仅拓展了税收征管数字化治理效应的研究边界,也为理解供应链韧性的影响因素提供了新的理论视角,并为政府推动智慧税务建设与企业构建韧性供应链网络提供了有益的政策启示。

关键词: 税收征管, 数字化, 供应链韧性, 金税三期工程

Abstract: Digital tax administration, as a key reform measure promoting the transformation toward "data driven tax governance" has profoundly influenced various dimensions of corporate operations. This study exploits the implementation of the Golden Tax Project III as a quasi-natural experiment and employs data from Chinese A-share listed firms during 2008-2023 to examine the impact of digital tax administration on corporate supply chain resilience and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that digital tax administration significantly enhances firms' supply chain resilience, and this conclusion is robust to multiple tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that the effect operates primarily through improving corporate information transparency and reducing agency costs. Heterogeneity tests further reveal that the positive impact is more pronounced among manufacturing firms, firms operating in highly competitive industries, and firms located in regions with stronger tax enforcement. This study not only extends the literature on the governance effects of digital tax administration but also provides a novel theoretical perspective on the determinants of supply chain resilience, offering valuable policy implications for advancing smart taxation and supporting enterprises in building resilient supply chain networks.

Key words: tax collection and management, digitalization, supply chain resilience, Golden Tax Project III