城市空气质量目标约束下冬季污染物减排最优控制策略研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0147

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文提出城市空气质量达标约束的污染减排最优控制系统，以空气质量模型(WRF-CMAQ)为基础，搭建“本地化”空气质量模拟平台，构建空气质量达标评估模型和减排成本优化模型，并通过遗传算法求解湘潭市冬季拟定空气质量目标约束下污染物减排最优控制策略。结果表明，在保持臭氧浓度不变的情形下，当PM2.5目标值分别拟定为55 μg/m3、60 μg/m3、65 μg/m3时，可得到相应的污染物减排最优控制方案。空气质量PM2.5目标值分别改进30.4%、24.1%、17.8%，对应减排总成本分别为16.6×106元、6.36×106元、1.46×106元。本文构建的城市污染减排最优控制系统及其模型求解方法，不仅可为制订城市冬季重污染天气应对方案提供有效的技术支撑，也可为城市制定“一市一策”空气质量达标战略规划提供理论指导与决策方法。

关键词: 冬季；空气质量目标；遗传算法；污染物减排；最优控制策略

Abstract: An optimal control system for pollution reduction constrained by urban air quality compliance is proposed. Based on the air quality model (WRF-CMAQ), a “localized” air quality simulation platform is built, and an air quality compliance assessment model and emission reduction cost optimization model are constructed. The genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimal control strategy of pollution reduction of a city under the constraint of air quality target in winter. The results show that under the condition of keeping the ozone concentration unchanged, when the PM2.5 target concentration values are set as 55 μg/m3, 60 μg/m3, and 65 μg/m3, respectively, the corresponding optimal control scheme of pollution reduction can be obtained. The PM2.5 target concentration values are improved by 30.4%, 24.1%, and 17.8%, and the corresponding total emission reduction costs are 16.6×106, 6.36×106, and 1.46×106 yuan, respectively. The optimal control system for urban pollution reduction and its model solving method constructed in this paper can not only provide effective scientific and technological support for the formulation of the urban heavy pollution weather response plan in winter, but also provide theoretical guidance and decision-making method for the development of “one city, one policy” urban air quality compliance strategic planning.

Key words: winter; air quality target; genetic algorithm; pollution reduction; optimal control strategy

中图分类号:

X513

陈晓红, 周明辉, 唐湘博. 城市空气质量目标约束下冬季污染物减排最优控制策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2023, 31(3): 1-9.

CHEN Xiao-hong, ZHOU Ming-hui, TANG Xiang-bo. Research on the Optimal Control Strategy for Pollution Reduction in Winter under the Constraints of Urban Air Quality Targets[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(3): 1-9.

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