Chinese Journal of Management Science >
2025 , Vol. 33 >Issue 3: 34 - 44
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0771
How Forward-looking Statements in Earnings Communication Conference Affect Analysts Forecast Accuracy? ——Falsehood or Foretell
Received date: 2022-04-13
Revised date: 2022-10-22
Online published: 2025-04-07
Earnings communication conferences are important platforms for communication between listed companies and minority investors in China. In fact， due to the anonymity and low threshold nature of earnings communication conferences， their participants include not only minority investors but also analysts， potential investors， competitors， etc. Because management cannot anticipate the participants’ questions in advance， more “hard information” and “soft information” may be inadvertently delivered. Whether analysts， who are important information intermediaries in capital markets， draw on forward-looking statements （hereafter FLS） in earnings communication conferences when collecting， analyzing， and producing information， how these FLS influence analysts’ earnings forecasts， and which kind of FLS is more useful are the questions explored in this paper.Using textual information from 2007 to 2020， it is found that firms with more FLS disclosed in Earnings Communication Conference have more accurate analysts forecast afterwards. Experienced analysts benefit more from using FLS due to better information processing capability and easier access to resources. Forward-looking statements assist analysts in making more accurate forecasts when information asymmetry is more severe. Then a possible explanation is presented. With more FLS disclosed by the firm， sell-side analysts and institutional investors may increase their corporate visits to verify the information acquired. In this way， analysts forecast accuracy is improved. Furthermore， it is also found that performance related FLS are more likely to improve analysts forecast accuracy， due to higher credibility and direct relation with earnings.
Shuai Xu , Shuai Shao , Xianjie He . How Forward-looking Statements in Earnings Communication Conference Affect Analysts Forecast Accuracy? ——Falsehood or Foretell[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025 , 33(3) : 34 -44 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0771
| 1 | 卞世博， 管之凡， 阎志鹏. 答非所问与市场反应：基于业绩说明会的研究［J］. 管理科学学报， 2021， 24（4）： 109-126. |
| Bian S B， Guan Z F， Yan Z P. Irrelevant answers and market reaction： Evidence from performance briefings ［J］. Journal of Management Sciences in China， 2021， 24（4）： 109-126. | |
| 2 | Kimbrough M D. The effect of conference calls on analyst and market underreaction to earnings announcements［J］. The Accounting Review， 2005， 80（1）： 189-219. |
| 3 | Mayew W J， Sharp N Y， Venkatachalam M. Using earnings conference calls to identify analysts with superior private information［J］. Review of Accounting Studies， 2013， 18（2）： 386-413. |
| 4 | Cohen L， Lou D， Malloy C J. Casting conference calls［J］. Management Science， 2020， 66（11）： 5015-5039. |
| 5 | Li F. The information content of forward‐looking statements in corporate filings：A na?ve Bayesian machine learning approach［J］. Journal of Accounting Research， 2010， 48（5）： 1049-1102. |
| 6 | Muslu V， Radhakrishnan S， Subramanyam K R， et al. Forward-looking MD&A disclosures and the information environment［J］. Management Science， 2015， 61（5）： 931-948. |
| 7 | 赵子夜， 杨庆， 杨楠. 言多必失？管理层报告的样板化及其经济后果［J］. 管理科学学报， 2019， 22（3）： 53-70. |
| Zhao Z Y， Yang Q， Yang N. The less said the better？ Economic consequences of textual similarity in management discussion and analysis ［J］. Journal of Management Sciences in China， 2019， 22（3）： 53-70. | |
| 8 | Matsumoto D， Pronk M， Roelofsen E. What makes conference calls useful？ The information content of managers’presentations and analysts’discussion sessions［J］. The Accounting Review， 2011， 86（4）： 1383-1414. |
| 9 | 王秀丽， 齐荻， 吕文栋. 控股股东股权质押与年报前瞻性信息披露［J］. 会计研究， 2020（12）： 43-58. |
| Wang X L， Qi D， Lv W D. Pledge of controlling shareholders’equity and disclosure of future tense information in annual report ［J］. Accounting Research， 2020（12）： 43-58. | |
| 10 | 谢德仁， 林乐. 管理层语调能预示公司未来业绩吗？——基于我国上市公司年度业绩说明会的文本分析［J］. 会计研究， 2015（2）： 20-27. |
| Xie D R， Lin L. Do management tones help to forecast firms’future performance： A textual analysis based on annual earnings communication conferences of listed companies in China ［J］. Accounting Research， 2015（2）： 20-27. | |
| 11 | 林乐， 谢德仁. 分析师荐股更新利用管理层语调吗？——基于业绩说明会的文本分析［J］. 管理世界， 2017（11）： 125-145. |
| Lin L， Xie D R. Do analysts’recommendation revisions use management tones？A textual analysis based on earnings communication conferences ［J］. Journal of Management World， 2017（11）： 125-145. | |
| 12 | 钟凯， 董晓丹， 陈战光. 业绩说明会语调与分析师预测准确性［J］. 经济管理， 2020， 42（8）： 120-137. |
| Zhong K， Dong X D， Chen Z G. The tone of earnings communication conferences and analyst forecast accuracy［J］. Business and Management Journal， 2020， 42（8）： 120-137. | |
| 13 | Loughran T， Mcdonald B. Textual analysis in accounting and finance： A survey［J］. Journal of Accounting Research， 2016， 54（4）： 1187-1230. |
| 14 | 马黎珺， 伊志宏， 张澈. 廉价交谈还是言之有据？——分析师报告文本的信息含量研究［J］. 管理世界， 2019， 35（7）： 182-200. |
| Ma L J， Yi Z H， Zhang C. Evidence-based statements or cheap talks？ The information content of text in analyst reports［J］. Journal of Management World， 2019， 35（7）： 182-200. | |
| 15 | 胡楠，薛付婧. 前瞻性信息披露与公司绩效——基于文本分析和机器学习［C］//第十七届中国实证会计国际研讨会，新疆石河子，12月14-16日，2018. |
| Hu N， Xue F J. Forward-looking disclosures and company performance： Based on text analytics and machine learning［C］//The 17th China Empirical Accounting International Symposium， Shihezi， Xinjiang， December 14-16， 2018. | |
| 16 | 丘心颖， 郑小翠， 邓可斌. 分析师能有效发挥专业解读信息的作用吗？——基于汉字年报复杂性指标的研究［J］. 经济学（季刊）， 2016， 15（4）： 1483-1506. |
| Qiu X Y， Zheng X C， Deng K B. Can analysts play an effective role in professional information interpretation？ Evidence based on a complexity/readability Index of Chinese corporate annual report［J］. China Economic Quarterly， 2016， 15（4）： 1483-1506. | |
| 17 | Brochet F， Kolev K， Lerman A. Information transfer and conference calls［J］. Review of Accounting Studies， 2018， 23（3）： 907-957. |
| 18 | 程新生， 谭有超， 刘建梅. 非财务信息、外部融资与投资效率——基于外部制度约束的研究［J］. 管理世界， 2012（7）： 137-150+188. |
| Cheng X S， Tan Y C， Liu J M. The non-financial information， the external financing， and the investment efficiency： A study based on the constraint of external systems［J］. Journal of Management World， 2012（7）： 137-150+188. | |
| 19 | 曾庆生， 周波， 张程， 等. 年报语调与内部人交易：“表里如一”还是“口是心非”？［J］. 管理世界， 2018， 34（9）： 143-160. |
| Zeng Q S， Zhou B， Zhang C， et al. Annual report tone and insider transactions： “truth from the outside” or “duplicity”？［J］. Journal of Management World， 2018， 34（9）： 143-160. | |
| 20 | Bozanic Z， Roulstone D T， Van Buskirk A. Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements［J］. Journal of Journal of Accounting and Economics， 2018， 65（1）： 1-20. |
| 21 | Athanasakou V， Hussainey K. The perceived credibility of forward-looking performance disclosures［J］. Accounting and Business Research， 2014， 44（3）， 227-259. |
| 22 | 张然， 汪荣飞， 王胜华. 分析师修正信息、基本面分析与未来股票收益［J］. 金融研究， 2017（7）： 156-174. |
| Zhang R， Wang R F， Wang S H. Analysts’revisions， fundamental analysis and future stock returns ［J］. Journal of Financial Research， 2017（7）： 156-174. | |
| 23 | 李丹， 袁淳， 廖冠民. 卖空机制与分析师乐观性偏差—基于双重差分模型的检验［J］. 会计研究， 2016（9）： 25-31. |
| Li D， Yuan C， Liao G M. Short selling mechanism and analyst optimism bias：A test based on DID model ［J］. Accounting Research， 2016（9）： 25-31. | |
| 24 | Clement M B. Analyst forecast accuracy： Do ability， resources， and portfolio complexity matter？［J］. Journal of Accounting and Economics， 1999， 27（3）： 285-303. |
| 25 | 王雄元， 李岩琼， 肖忞. 年报风险信息披露有助于提高分析师预测准确度吗？［J］. 会计研究， 2017（10）： 37-43. |
| Wang X Y， Li Y Q， Xiao M. Risk information disclosure in annual report， heterogeneous beliefs and analysts’earnings forecasts ［J］. Accounting Research， 2017（10）： 37-43. | |
| 26 | He X J， Yin H F， Zeng Y C， et al. Facial structure and achievement drive： Evidence from financial analysts［J］. Journal of Accounting Research， 2019， 57（4）： 1013-1057. |
| 27 | Li Z Q， Wong T J， Yu G. Information dissemination through embedded financial analysts： Evidence from China［J］. The Accounting Review， 2020， 95（2）： 257-281. |
| 28 | Healy P M， Palepu K G. Information asymmetry， corporate disclosure， and the capital markets： A review of the empirical disclosure literature［J］. Journal of Accounting and Economics， 2001， 31（1-3）： 405-440. |
| 29 | Cheng Q， Du F， Wang X， et al. Seeing is believing： Analysts’corporate site visits［J］. Review of Accounting Studies， 2016， 21（4）： 1245-1286. |
| 30 | 温忠麟， 张雷， 侯杰泰， 等. 中介效应检验程序及其应用［J］. 心理学报， 2004（5）： 614-620. |
| Wen Z L， Zhang L， Hou J T， et al. Testing and application of the mediating effects［J］. Acta Psychologica Sinica， 2004（5）： 614-620. | |
| 31 | Hutton A， Miller G S， Skinner D. The role of supplementary statements with management earnings forecasts ［J］. Journal of Accounting Research， 2003， 41（5）：867-890. |
| 32 | Henry E， Leone A J. Measuring qualitative information in capital markets research： Comparison of alternative methodologies to measure disclosure tone［J］. The Accounting Review， 2016， 91（1）： 153-178. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |