主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Individual Accounts of Basic Pension:Funded or Unfunded?

  • Yunlong Li ,
  • Jiaxuan Zhan ,
  • Xiaojun Wang
Expand
  • 1.School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
    2.Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
    3.Social Insurance Fund Supervision Office, Bureau of Human Resources and Social Security of Shanghai, Shanghai 200125, China

Received date: 2021-06-04

  Revised date: 2022-08-30

  Online published: 2024-08-07

Abstract

The basic pension in China is based on the combination of social pooling and individual accounts, in which the fund model of individual accounts involves the protection of pension accrued rights and pension benefits. However, the government is still considering whether individual accounts should be funded or unfunded. The existing research supporting the funded individual accounts argues that it is better to cope with the aging of the population and that the ownership of individual accounts should be vested in individuals. Scholars who hold opposing views believe that unfunded individual accounts have higher transition costs, which leads to greater pressure on national finance.Through the model and empirical analysis, theoretical support for whether the individual account needs to be funded is provided. In demography, the continuous time OLG model rather than the multi-generation OLG model can depict the dynamic changes in population structure, resulting in better interpretability of the results. With the help of the continuous time OLG model, the model conditions are explored to improve individual accounts. Given the constraints of the funds needed to improve the individual account, the financial pressure faced by the government is simulated under different parameter assumptions and it is concluded that there will be huge financial pressure in the next 5-20 years. Adopting the unfunded and bookkeeping individual account, and setting appropriate account parameters can protect individual accrued and pension benefits and maintain the long-term financial sustainability of the system.

Cite this article

Yunlong Li , Jiaxuan Zhan , Xiaojun Wang . Individual Accounts of Basic Pension:Funded or Unfunded?[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024 , 32(7) : 37 -44 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1119

References

1 林山君,孙祁祥.人口老龄化、现收现付制与中等收入陷阱[J].金融研究,2015(6):48-63.
1 Lin S J, Sun Q X. Population aging, pay-as-you-go system and middle-income trap[J]. Financial Research,2015(6):48-63.
2 高建伟,邱菀华.现收现付制与部分积累制的缴费率模型[J].中国管理科学,2002,10(4):83-86.
2 Gao J W, Qiu W H. Contribution rate modelling for pay-as-you-go and partial accumulation systems[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science,2002,10(4):83-86.
3 刘明慧,李业林.人口老龄化与养老金筹资模式的选择[J].东北财经大学学报,2000(2):59-63.
3 Liu M H, Li Y L. Population aging and the choice of pension funding model[J]. Journal of Northeast University of Finance and Economics,2000(2):59-63.
4 Barr N,Reforming pensions: Myths,truths and policy choices[J]. International Social Security Review,2002, 55(2):3-36.
5 Breyer F. On the intergenerational pareto efficiency of pay-as-you-go financed pension systems[J].Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics,1989,145(4): 643-658.
6 Barr N. Economics of the welfare state[M].New York: Oxford University Press, 2020.
7 朱青.当前养老保险筹资模式不宜转向基金式[J].经济理论与经济管理,2001(12):16-21.
7 Zhu Q. The current pension insurance financing model should not be shifted to the fund type[J]. Economic Theory and Economic Management,2001(12):16-21.
8 鲍春华.养老保险暂缓做实个人账户的几点理由[J].统计与决策,2011(11):151-153.
8 Bao C H. Reasons for suspending the realisation of individual accounts for pension insurance[J]. Statistics and Decision-making,2011(11):151-153.
9 周志凯.智利、新加坡、瑞典养老保险个人账户管理模式比较[J].财政研究,2006(11):78-80.
9 Zhou Z K. Comparison of individual account management models of pension insurance in Chile, Singapore and Sweden[J]. Financial Research,2006(11):78-80.
10 Oksanen H. The Chinese pension system: First results on assessing the reform options[J]. Social Security Research, 2010(2): 3-38.
11 Holzmann R, Palmer E, Palacios R, et al. Progress and challenges of nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes[R].The Discussion Paper,The World Bank Publications, 2020.
12 Lu B, Piggott J, Zheng B. The notional and the real in china's pension reforms[M].Washing, D.C: World Bandk, 2019.
13 万树,蔡霞,郭旭.做实个人账户观点综述与试点评价[J].社会保障研究,2012(6):41-45.
13 Wan S, Cai X, Guo X. Overview and pilot evaluation of personal accounts[J]. Social Security Research,2012(6):41-45.
14 杨燕绥,王巍,张曼.社会保险基金安全运营机制研究——做实个人账户的思考[J].中国行政管理,2010(5):61-66.
14 Yang Y S, Wang W, Zhang M. Research on the safety operation mechanism of social insurance fund: Thinking of making personal accounts real[J]. China Administration,2010(5):61-66.
15 郑伟,袁新钊.名义账户制与中国养老保险改革:路径选择和挑战[J].经济社会体制比较,2010(2):96-107.
15 Zheng W, Yuan X Z. Nominal account system and China's pension insurance reform: Path choice and challenges[J]. Comparison of Economic and Social Systems,2010(2):96-107.
16 Williamson J B, 申策,房连泉. 东亚三国的公共养老金制度改革:名义账户制的应用前景评析[J].社会保障研究,2011(5):74-84.
16 Williamson J B, Shen C, Fang L Q. Public pension reform in three east asian countries: A review of the prospects for the application of the nominal account system[J]. Social Security Research,2011(5):74-84.
17 郑秉文.从做实账户到名义账户——可持续性与激励性[J].开发研究,2015(3):1-6.
17 Zheng B W. From realised accounts to nominal accounts-sustainability and incentives[J].Development Research,2015(3):1-6.
18 彭浩然.中国基本养老保险个人账户的改革方向——基于个人账户改革四次争论的思考[J].社会科学辑刊,2021(2):160-168
18 Peng H R. Reform direction of China's basic pension insurance individual account: Thinking based on four debates on individual account reform[J]. Social Science Journal, 2021(2):160-168.
19 杨洋,崔少敏.阶段对企业职工基本养老保险个人账户制的思考与探讨[J]. 社会保障研究,2022(3):3-12.
19 Yang Y, Cui S M. Reflections and discussions on the individual account system of basic pension insurance for enterprise employees at the stage [J]. Social Security Research, 2022(3):3-12.
20 Bommier A, Lee R D. Overlapping generations models with realistic demography[J]. Journal of Population Economics, 2003, 16(1): 135-160.
21 Alonso-García J, Devolder P. Continuous time model for notional defined contribution pension schemes: Liquidity and solvency[J]. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2019,88:57-76.
22 国务院发展研究中心课题组.中国城镇化:前景、战略与政策[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2010.
22 Development Research Centre of the State Council. Urbanisation in China: Prospects, strategies and policies [M].Beijing: China Development Press,2010.
23 易信,郭春丽.未来30年我国潜在增长率变化趋势及2049年发展水平预测[J].经济学家,2018(2):36-45.
23 Yi X, Guo C L. Trend of China's potential growth rate in the next 30 years and forecast of development level in 2049[J]. Economist,2018(2):36-45.
24 盛来运,李拓,毛盛勇,等.中国全要素生产率测算与经济增长前景预测[J].统计与信息论坛,2018,33(12):3-11.
24 Sheng L Y, Li T, Mao S Y, et al. China's total factor productivity measurement and economic growth prospect forecast[J]. Statistics and Information Forum,2018,33(12):3-11.
25 Gollin D. Getting income shares right[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2002, 110(2): 458-474.
26 米海杰,王晓军,王述珍.养老保险个人账户参数设定错误与纠正[J].统计研究,2019,36(6):68-80.
26 Mi H J, Wang X J, Wang S Z. Pension insurance personal account parameter setting error and correction[J]. Statistical Research,2019,36(6):68-80.
27 于洪,曾益.退休年龄、生育政策与中国基本养老保险基金的可持续性[J].财经研究,2015,41(6):46-57+69.
27 Yu H, Zeng Y. Retirement age, fertility policy and the sustainability of China's basic pension insurance fund[J]. Financial Research,2015,41(6):46-57+69.
Outlines

/