Within the current international crude oil futures market pricing pattern, how to determine whether China's crude oil futures prices have international pricing power is both an urgent theoretical and practical problem. Based on a statistical analysis using the multivariate one-way effect causal measure method, this paper focuses on the independence and conductivity of crude oil futures market pricing, using the Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center crude oil futures price (INE) as an empirical basis. The results are threefold. First, in the short and medium term, INE is not affected by WTI, Brent crude oil futures prices, it also has a price discovery function, but does not yet have long-term independence. Second, under the condition of the sample interval of this paper and the exchange rate between US dollar and RMB, the use of RMB pricing in Shanghai crude oil futures can enhance its influence on WTI and Brent, and a the same time reduce their influence, thus highlighting the dual pricing advantage of RMB pricing. Third, WTI and Brent oil prices being benchmark oil price indicators and INE being a non-benchmark oil price indicator validates the paper's new criteria to determine the long-term independence between benchmark indicators, as well as the conductivity of benchmark oil prices on non-benchmark oil prices, thus reflecting the rationality of this criteria.
TIAN Hong-zhi
,
YAO Feng
,
LI Hui
. Does China Have the International Pricing Power for Crude Oil?——Based on a Perspective of Independence and Conductivity Between Oil Prices[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020
, 28(11)
: 90
-99
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.11.010
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