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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 103-119.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1637

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Supervised Topic Modeling and Application Research on Product Recall Considering Textual Structural Features

Wen Shi, Yujie Qu(), Xiaoshuang Wang   

  1. School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China
  • Received:2023-10-07 Revised:2024-03-21 Online:2026-02-25 Published:2026-02-04
  • Contact: Yujie Qu E-mail:jsqyj3332@csu.edu.cn

Abstract:

Product recalls are a growing concern for public safety, leading governments and businesses to prioritize timely and accurate recall decisions. While recalling defective vehicles is crucial for consumer safety and property rights, it can also have significant financial and reputational consequences for automobile manufacturers. To mitigate these risks, companies are shifting focus towards proactive defect detection and prevention measures. The rise of online defect complaints, facilitated by advances in internet and social media, presents an opportunity to address this issue. However, existing research on product recalls has primarily focused on their causes and consequences, neglecting recall prediction. Similarly, research on defect complaints has centered on categorization, factors influencing complaints, and organizational strategies, often overlooking important auxiliary information within complaint narratives. Thus, there is a need to explore effective approaches for utilizing online defect complaint data to predict automobile recalls.

A novel four-layer metadata-based supervised segmented topic model (abbreviated MsSTM) is proposed, which integrates auxiliary information from defect complaints and addresses the challenges associated with analyzing short texts. This model facilitates the extraction of latent defect topics and estimation of recall probabilities using a large-scale dataset comprising online defect complaints. Experimental findings demonstrate that MsSTM successfully extracts topics about core components, body accessories and after-sales service from defect complaints. Furthermore, the intensity of these topics exhibits correlations with complaint quantity and manufacturer characteristics. The domestic automakers should pay more attention to the after-sales service, while the joint ventures should care more about the odor, navigation and suspension system. Finally, the predictive stability of MsSTM for automobile recalls surpasses that of various comparative models, achieving an impressive ROC-AUC value of 82.74%, reflecting a notable 10.42% enhancement compared to the best ROC-AUC value among the comparative models. The findings carry important implications for relevant automobile manufacturers and government agencies in devising recall strategies, promoting timely enhancements in automotive safety, mitigating the occurrence of traffic accidents, and safeguarding consumer safety and property rights.

Key words: recall prediction, online defect complaints, auxiliary information, supervised segmented topic model

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