以动力系统理论和振荡理论为基础,针对重大工程传染性风险的特征,基于重大工程主体间的结构协同关系,构建最大限度抑制重大工程传染性风险,同时保证重大工程正常有序施工的结构协同增益模型。运用数理分析方法,以重大工程传染性风险形成的核心主导因素"人"的主体行为为切入点,对重大工程传染性风险结构协同过程进行系统分析。研究结果表明:在常数率遏止和振荡遏止两种协同手段下,结构协同增益模型均存在临界值,并受到传染者群体密度、结构比例以及协同周期的影响,当振荡协同周期大于最短振荡周期时,振荡遏止比常数率遏止适合;反之,常数率遏止比振荡遏止更适合。所建模型及分析结论在一定程度上阐述了影响重大工程传染性风险协同管理的关键机理,解释了重大工程传染性风险结构性规律,研究结果不仅对相关理论进行了验证和补充,同时也为协同管理实践提供有益参考,以帮助更加有效协同管理重大工程传染性风险。
Based on the synergic relationship assumption of structure among main bodies of the critical project, by taking into consideration root causing the infectious risk of the critical project and the infectious characteristics of the critical project, a structural synergistic gain model is constructed which synergizes the infectious risk of the critical project at the high limit and ensures normal and ordered construction. Through utilizing a mathematical analysis method and taking the subject behavior of the core leading factor "person" formed by the infectious risk of the critical project as the point cut, a mathematical comparative analysis is carried out based on the structural synergistic gain model of the infectious risk. The research result shows:(1) when the ratio of infectors capable of being synergized is less than the critical value, it shall hold back the infectious risk strategy by a large-scale constant-rate so as to prevent from damaging the structural balance between the infector and the other person and thus cause serious impact on the synergizer and other person unrelated or even cause local or large-area shut-down of the critical project. (2) When the oscillation period of the synergism infector is more than the critical value, it shall be not too frequent for implementing the oscillation synergism infectors so as to prevent a structural disequilibrium. At that time, the moderate oscillation synergism management can not only make the personnel structure free from collapse caused by the infectious risk but also digest and reduce the infector density in pro rata by synergism. (3) Through a comparative analysis, it is found that when the oscillation period is more than the shortest one, the oscillation synergism is better than the constant-rate hold-back; otherwise, the constant-rate hold-back is better than the oscillation synergism. Moreover, it is found that under two synergism means of constant-rate hold-back and the oscillation synergism, the critical value of the structural proportion unbalancing can be avoided between the infector and the synergizer so as to promote structural synergistic gain of the critical project. Therefore, the research not only discloses relevant mechanism of infectious risk synergism of the critical project but also en riches the coordinative management research theory. The structural synergistic gain model and its index provides references for selecting the coordinative management of the infectious risk of the critical project. It specifically inhibits and prevents the occurrence of large-scale infectious risk, protects personnel structure proportion of the critical project, reaches the effect of structural synergistic gain, protects national economic "stabilizer" and effectively promotes sound and stable development of the critical project.
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