本文构建可计算一般均衡模型，分析了不同情景下能源价格波动对我国能源-环境-经济系统的影响，实现了对投入产出表中能源部门的细分。首先通过双比例平衡法将石油与天然气开采业细分为石油开采业与天然气开采业；然后依据投入产出表编制法将电力部门细分为火电、水电、核电、风电、太阳能及其它电力，以分析相关政策对能源-环境-经济系统变量的影响。研究结果表明：化石能源价格下降对实际GDP与社会福利具有正面效应，促进了化石能源消费与碳排放增加，并抑制了清洁电力需求，对环境系统产生了负面影响。碳税政策有利于促进清洁电力发展并抑制化石能源消费和碳排放的增加，因此构建碳税和化石能源价格联动的政策机制有利于节能减排和清洁能源的发展。当可再生能源电力效率有效提升后，市场化电价机制有利于可再生电力的发展。反之，政府管制电价有利于可再生能源电力的发展。研究结果具有较强的政策含义。
Recently China has experienced many changes in energy field including coal and oil price decline, rapid development of renewable energy, levying environmental tax in 2018, and so on. Energy price fluctuation has significant impacts on the economic and environmental system since energy is an important input in production. A computable general equilibrium model is conducted to explore the impacts of energy prices fluctuations on the China's Energy-Economy-Environment system in various scenarios, in which we take into account the fossil energy prices decline,technical progress in clean power, carbon tax policy and the electricity market reform.
The energy sectors are disaggregated in detail based on the 2012 Input-Output table of China. The petroleum and natural gas extraction sector is disaggregated into two subsectors of petroleum extraction sector and natural gas extractionsector by using the bi-proportional scaling method. The electric power sector is disaggregated into two subsectors of thermal electricity sector and clean electricity sector. Moreover, the clean electricity is disaggregated into four subdivisions including nuclear electricity, hydroelectricity, wind power, solar energy and others. Consequently, the energy sectors in the CGE model include 11 subsectors including the coal, coking, crude oil, petroleum, natural gas, gas, thermal electricity, nuclear electricity, hydroelectricity, wind power and solar energy and others.
The empirical results show that the decline of fossil energy price in various policy scenarios has positive effects on actual GDP and social welfare. But it will negatively affect the environmental system, since it will increase energy consumption and carbon emissions, and restrain the clean electricity demand. While the carbon tax policy has the opposite effects, a dynamic adjusted carbon tax policy associated with the fossil energy price fluctuation is an effective policy choice to promote clean power development and mitigate fossil energy consumption and carbon emissions. When the technique efficiency of clean renewable energy is improved significantly, the market-oriented tariff mechanism is conducive to the development of clean renewable power. Otherwise, the electricity price mandated by the government is advantageous. The research results have intensive policy implications.
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