BOT项目的可控制风险研究

中国管理科学 ›› 2005, Vol. ›› Issue (5): 39-43.

BOT项目的可控制风险研究

赵立力, 谭德庆, 黄庆

西南交通大学经济管理学院, 成都, 610031

收稿日期:2005-02-16 修回日期:2005-08-04 出版日期:2005-10-28 发布日期:2012-03-07
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70371045)

Research on Controllable Risk in BOT Projects

ZHAO Li-li, TAN De-qing, HUANG Qing

School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China

Received:2005-02-16 Revised:2005-08-04 Online:2005-10-28 Published:2012-03-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要： BOT是一种高收益与高风险并存的投资模式,在项目公司无法把握政治风险、商业风险和通货膨胀等不可控制风险的情况下,如何减小或避免可控制的资本结构风险、竣工风险和收入等风险就显得犹为重要。本文通过分析项目公司的参与约束和偿债约束,在定量的确定了项目公司资本结构要求的基础上,给出了避免可控制风险的相关条件。

关键词: BOT, 可控制风险, 资本结构风险, 收入风险, 竣工风险

Abstract: BOT is an investment mode that high revenue and high risk coexist in.Under the condition that project company is unable to grasp uncontrollable risk including political risk,commercial risk,inflation risk,etc,how to avoid controllable capital structure risk,completion risk and revenue risk,etc seems to be more important.Based on the requirement quantitatively deciding project company capital structure,this paper gives the relevant conditions of avoiding the controllable risks through analyzing participation constraint and repay ment constraint.

Key words: BOT, controllable risk, capital structure risk, revenue risk, completion risk

中图分类号:

F224.5

赵立力,谭德庆,黄庆. BOT项目的可控制风险研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2005, (5): 39-43.

ZHAO Li-li,TAN De-qing,HUANG Qing. Research on Controllable Risk in BOT Projects[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2005, (5): 39-43.

参考文献

[1] Min-cheng Lin. Contract design of private infrastructure concessions[D]. University of California, Berkeley, 2000.
[2] Yeo, K. T., Tiong, R. L. K. Positive management of differences for risk reduction in BOT projects[J]. International Journal of Project Management, 2000,18 (4): 357-265.
[3] Mohamed, M. Askar, Ahmed, A. Gab-Allah. Problems Facing Parties Involved in Buid Operate and Transport Projects in Egypt[J]. Journal of Management in Engineering,2002,18(4) :173-178.
[4] Tiong, R. L. K. Risks and guarantees in BOT tender [J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1995,121(2) :183-188.
[5] Tiong, R. L. K. Impact of financial package versus technical solution in a BOT tender[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1995,121 (4): 304-311.
[6] David, AK, Fernando, P. N. The BOT option. Conflicts and compromises[J]. Energy policy, 1995,23 (8): 669-675.
[7] Shen, L. Y., Lee, K. H., and Zhang, Z. Application of BOT system for infrastructure projects in China [J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1996,122 (4):319-323.
[8] Shen,L,Y. ,Wu,Y.Z.Risk concession model for build operate transfer contract projects[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2005,131 (2): 211-220.
[9] Shen, L.Y., Li, H., and Li, Q. M. Alternative concession model for build operate transfer contract projects [J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2002,128(4) :326-330.
[10] Nisangul Ceran. Private participation in infrastructure:A risk analysis of long-term contracts in power sector[D].George Mason University, 2002.
[11] Zhang, W.R. Wang, S.Q., Tiong, R.L.K, Tiong,S. K. and Ashley, D. Risk management of Shanghai's private-financed Yan' an Donglu tunnels[J]. Journal of Engineering, Construction and Architecture Management, 1998,5(4) :399-409.
[12] 韩艳.公路BOT经营中风险评估方法的研究[D].长安大学,硕士学位论文,2001.
[13] 陈煌铭,陈炳富.论民营化基础建设BOT项目风险之管理战略[J].南开管理评论,1999,2:48-52.
[14] 江前良.国际BOT方式理论与实务[M].中国对外经济贸易出版社,1996.
[15] 李启明,申立银.基础设施BOT项目特许权期的决策模型[J].管理工程学报,2000,1:43-46.
[16] 张水波,孔德泉,何伯森.BOT项目风险管理的担保手段[J].中国软科学,2000,(2):73-76.
[17] 杨宏伟,何建敏,周晶.在BOT模式下收费道路定价和投资的博弈决策模型[J].中国管理科学,2003,11(2):30-33.