Two assumptions of the traditional input-output price model are: not to consider the price adjustment of the initiative industries and not to consider the feedback effect of consumption final demand change on industry output. This paper makesa new development and an improvement on the traditional input-output price model by relaxing those two assumptions, and proposes the global price transmission model under the carbon emission trading mechanism, which can be used to analyze the short-term and medium-term impact of carbon emission trading mechanism on the production cost and price of national economic industries. This analysis can identify the industries to which more attention should be paid, in order to ensure the successful implementation of carbon trading policy. The simulation results show that, after the police implementation, some industries, such as production and supply of tap water, other minerals mining and dressing, production and supply of electric power, are sensitive to the policy and have relatively large profit percentage change.
YAN Bing-qian, QIAO Hai, WANG Shou-yang
. The Short-term and Medium-term Impact of Carbon Trading Mechanism on Chinese Industries[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017
, 25(7)
: 1
-10
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.07.001
[1] 发改办气候.国家发展改革委办公厅关于切实做好全国碳排放权交易市场启动重点工作的通知[R]. 北京:发改办气候, 2016.
[2] Gurgel A C, Paltsev S, Reilly J, et al. An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model[J]. Environment and Development Economics, 2011,16(2):155-176.
[3] Hermeling C, Löschel A, Mennel T. A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations: A CGE application for the EU 2020 targets[J]. Energy Policy, 2013,55(4):27-35.
[4] 贺菊煌,沈可挺,徐嵩龄.碳税与二氧化碳减排的CGE模型[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2002,19(10):39-47.
[5] 魏涛远,格罗姆斯洛德.征收碳税对中国经济与温室气体排放的影响[J]. 世界经济与政治, 2002,(8):47-49.
[6] 时佳瑞,蔡海琳,汤铃,等.基于CGE模型的碳交易机制对我国经济环境影响研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015,23(S1):801-806.
[7] 乔晗,汪寿阳.基于博弈论和CGE模型的碳税政策研究[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2014.
[8] 张俊荣,王孜丹,汤铃,等.基于系统动力学的京津冀碳排放交易政策影响研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016,24(3):1-8.
[9] 汤铃,武佳倩,戴伟,等.碳交易机制对中国经济与环境的影响[J]. 系统工程学报, 2014,29(5):701-712.
[10] 闫云凤.全球碳交易市场对中国经济-能源-气候系统的影响评估[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015,25(1):32-39.
[11] Leontief W. Studies in the structure of the American economy[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1953,19(1):15-31.
[12] Hawkins D.Some conditions of macroeconomic stability[J]. Econometrica, 1948,16(4):309-322.
[13] Johansen L. On the theory of dynamic input-output models with different time profiles of capital construction and finite life-time of capital equipment[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 1978,19(2):513-533.
[14] 张红霞.对投入产出价格影响模型的发展和改进[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2008,28(1):90-94.
[15] 佟仁城.基于生产时滞的价格传导时序模型[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2010,(8):139-152.
[16] 韩一杰,刘秀丽.中国猪肉价格波动对其他部门产品价格及CPI的影响测算[J]. 中国农村经济, 2011,(5):12-20.
[17] Miller R E, Blair P D. Input-output analysis:Foundations and extensions[M]. Cambridge University Press, 2009.
[18] 周宏春. 世界碳交易市场的发展与启示[J]. 中国软科学, 2009,(12):39-48.
[19] 雷立钧,荆哲峰. 国际碳交易市场发展对中国的启示[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011,21(4):30-36.
[20] 国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2013.
[21] Peters G, Weber C L, Liu Jingru. Construction of Chinese energy and emissions inventory[R]. Report 4, Industrial Ecology Programme, Norwegian University of Science and Technology,2006.
[22] Guan Dabo, Hubacek K, Weber C L, et al.The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2008,18(4):626-634.
[23] Guan Dabo, Liu Zhu, Geng Yong, et al.The gigatonne gap in China's garbon dioxide inventories[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012,2(9):1-4.
[24] 国家统计局工业交通统计司.中国能源统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2012.
[25] Agency I E. IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[M]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2006.
[26] 中国气候变化国别研究组.中国气候变化国别研究[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社, 2000.
[27] Ho M S, Morgenstern R, Shih J S. Impact of carbon price policies on U.S. industry[R]. Discussion Papers,Resources for the Future, 2008.
