主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Chinese Journal of Management Science

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Research on Blockchain Adoption Timing Decision for Shipping Companies under Demand Uncertainty

  

  • Received:2022-12-27 Revised:2023-03-30 Online:2023-06-14 Published:2023-06-14

Abstract: Abstract: Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology, its decentralized, paperless, open, and transparent features can increase the trust among shipping companies and improve the efficiency of shipping business clearance, which is popular among modern shipping companies. At present, some shipping companies have already carried out the practice of blockchain, for example, 14 Japanese companies, such as MOL, NYK, and K-LINE, have jointly established a trade data-sharing platform with blockchain, aiming to improve the transparency of information among companies. Shipping giants Maersk and IBM have also cooperated in blockchain as a way to improve the service level of the shipping business. In this background, aiming at the application problem of blockchain in shipping companies, this paper takes the change of competition form among shipping companies before and after the adoption of blockchain as the entry point, constructs the timing decision model under different competition scenarios, explores the blockchain adoption timing strategy of shipping companies based on real options theory under the market environment considering the uncertainty of freight demand, and further verifies the robustness of the model through extended analysis. It shows that price competition will lead to earlier blockchain adoption by shipping companies, and conversely, service competition will lead to later blockchain adoption by shipping companies. Further discussion reveals that the blockchain adoption timing of shipping companies differs in the face of competitors with different service levels and freight demand environments. The reasonable blockchain adoption timing strategies of shipping companies are divided into multiple regions under different technical and price competition environments. Finally, the extended analysis reveals that government subsidies can incentivize shipping companies to adopt blockchain early, and excessive blockchain operating costs can shift the timing of blockchain adoption by shipping companies.