Abstract: Abstract：The joint government-enterprise reserve is an effective way to improve the emergency material guarantee system and improve the emergency material reserve capacity. As the leader of the cooperation, the government should provide government subsidies to encourage the contracted enterprises to reserve in kind and production capacity. Based on the realistic background of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic, this article introduces the probability of occurrence of the epidemic, constructs a decision-making model for emergency medical supplies of contracted enterprises, and explores the impact of agreed procurement prices, the probability of epidemic occurrence and government subsidies on the storage decisions of contracted companies, and finally uses the calculation example verifies the conclusion obtained.

Key words: Key words：government subsidies, emergency medical supplies, physical reserves, production capacity reserves, probability of outbreak