基于贝叶斯网络的航空安全中不安全信息分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.12.012

Abstract

Abstract: In view of the unsafe events information collected in aviation safety, the data of the unsafe events found in the safety inspection is studied for the study. The problems found in the safety inspection are classified based on two classification principles, one of which is the factors related to data, and the other of which is related to human. The factors related to the human include training, supervision, staff deployment, information communication, knowledge, skills and several other aspects. The problem is divided into three categories:problems in the management of workflow, problems in the personnel management and problems in the equipment management. What's more, 10 basic reasons are summerized and the fault tree model of the civil aviation safety inspection is built. Besides, the fault tree model is used in the qualitative analysis of the minimum cut and structural importance. Then the NPC algorithm is used to infer the structure of the Bayesian network and study the parameters of the Bayesian network with the help of the EM algorithm. Combining the Bayesian network learning ability with the fault tree model, the Bayesian network model is presented for civil aviation safety inspection. Finally, based on the practical data collected from the airline security check, the impact of various factors is analyzed by use of the Bayesian network and come out with some conclusions. Individual factors, imperfect facilities and information communication are most likely to cause problems in the management of workflow. Management process and the deficiency of related knowledge and skills are most likely to cause problems in personnel management. Individual factors, training and equipment breakdowns are most likely to cause problems in device management. The research of this paper aims to provide an analytical method for the analysis and evaluation of aviation maintenance safety information. The Bayesian network model is constructed to solve the problem of civil aviation safety inspection in reality, which has pretty practical application value.

Key words: safety management, safety inspection, Bayesian network (BN), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), influence factors

CLC Number:

F562

XU Bao-guang,WANG Bei-bei,CHI Hong, et al. Insecurity Information Analysis in Civil Aviation Safety Based on Bayesian Network[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(12): 118-129.

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Insecurity Information Analysis in Civil Aviation Safety Based on Bayesian Network

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