金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0246

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the construction of “Dual Circulation”，as a major driving force for achieving high-quality economic development， Fintech’s economic effects should not be limited to the “Domestic Circulation”， but also to the "Mutual Promotion of Domestic and International Circulation".However， the research and practice on how to give full play to Fintech's driving force for economic development is often limited to domestic perspective. Comprehensively analyzing the impact of international economic cooperation on Fintech’s economic effect， and seeking new breakthroughs in Fintech’s healthy development from international perspective has been neglected. This is a research weakness in the background of building a “Dual Circulation”. In view of this， by innovatively integrating Fintech， outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） and high-quality economic development into a unified framework， the following subjects are discussed from the angle of “Mutual Promotion of Dual Circulation”： What is the effect of Fintech on high-quality economic development？ Can OFDI， an external circulation factor， promote this effect？ It is shown inthe theoretical model that strengthening the application of Fintech and promoting its spillover effect can effectively improve financial efficiency and economicdevelopment quality in the case of over-investment in the financial sector. This conclusion is verified by dynamic SAR model （dynamic spatial auto-regression model）： Fintech has no significant effecton improving economicdevelopment quality， whileits application in OFDI promotes it to play a greater economic effect. The function of “Domestic Circulation” and “International Circulation” in the high-quality construction of China’s economy is objectely and dialectically analyzed， and a new track forguiding the standard and healthy development of Fintech under the “Dual Circulation” is provided.

Key words: Fintech, high-quality economic development, outward foreign direct investment, entropy-topsis method, dynamic spatial auto-regression model

CLC Number:

F832.48

Dan-yang LIU,Zhi-gang HUANG. Fintech, Outward FDI and High-Quality Economic Development: Based on the Perspective of “Mutual Promotion of Dual Circulation”[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(11): 151-164.

Figures/Tables 9

变量类型	变量名称	代理变量	数据来源
被解释变量	经济高质量发展水平	Develop：熵权TOPSIS方法计算而得	Wind
核心解释变量	金融科技	FT：中国数字普惠金融指数/100	北京大学数字金融研究中心
核心解释变量	“一带一路”OFDI	OFDI：自行计算 (十亿美元)	FDI Markets
控制变量	教育水平	Education：本科生招生人数/总人口*100%（%）	Wind
	基础设施	Infrastructure：铁路总里程数/面积	Wind
	经济规模	GDP：区域生产总值（百亿元）	Wind
固定效应	年份固定效应	$μ$ ：Year fixed effects
固定效应	省份固定效应	$δ$ ：Province fixed effects
随机误差项		$ε$

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一级指标	二级指标	补充说明
经济增长强度	人均GDP
经济增长强度	GDP增速
产业结构优化	产业结构高级化	ISU_it ==q₁×1+q₂×2+q₃×3
产业结构优化	产业结构合理化	IRU_it =\|1-Theil_it \|
经济发展效率	劳动生产率	GDP/全部从业人员数量
	资本生产率	GDP/新增固定资产投资
	万元GDP能耗	生态能源效率
经济安全稳定	城镇登记失业率	正向化处理
	规模以上企业资产负债率	正向化处理
	CPI	正向化处理
经济创新发展	R&D资金投入	R&D经费支出/GDP
	R&D人员投入	R&D人员数/全部从业人员数量
	专利授权密度	国内三种专利授权数/总人口
	高技术产业产值占比	高技术产业产值/GDP
经济对外开放	投资开放度	外商直接投资占 GDP 比重
经济对外开放	贸易开放度	进出口总额占 GDP 比重
社会和谐	居民消费水平
社会和谐	城乡居民可支配收入比	农村居民可支配收入/城镇居民可支配收入，正向化处理

年份	Moran's I	年份	Moran's I	P-value^*
2011	0.371	2016	0.433	0.000
2012	0.382	2017	0.419	0.000
2013	0.399	2018	0.429	0.000
2014	0.409	2019	0.417	0.000
2015	0.411

变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）
变量	假设1	假设2	假设2	假设2
Variables	Develop	OFDI	Develop	Develop
L.Develop	0.798^*** (6.882)		0.828^*** (16.55)	0.671^*** (5.639)
L.Develop	0.798^*** (6.882)		0.828^*** (16.55)	0.671^*** (5.639)
FT	-0.00742 (-0.0497)	3.550^*** (3.036)		0.183 (1.016)
FT	-0.00742 (-0.0497)	3.550^*** (3.036)		0.183 (1.016)
FT×OFDI				0.0123^** (2.477)
FT×OFDI				0.0123^** (2.477)
OFDI			0.00753^** (2.332)	-0.0378^** (-2.146)
OFDI			0.00753^** (2.332)	-0.0378^** (-2.146)
Constant		52.08^*** (3.120)
Constant		52.08^*** (3.120)
Control	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Province fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Variance	0.405^*** (5.121)		0.401^*** (12.30)	0.396^*** (4.851)
Variance	0.405^*** (5.121)		0.401^*** (12.30)	0.396^*** (4.851)
Spatial rho	0.201^** (2.048)		0.228^*** (2.952)	0.199^** (2.126)
Spatial rho	0.201^** (2.048)		0.228^*** (2.952)	0.199^** (2.126)
R²	0.975	0.565	0.980	0.972

变量	（1）	（2）
变量	一带	一路
L.Develop	0.766^*** (7.844)	0.725^*** (8.797)
FT	-0.0536 (-0.296)	0.0272 (0.152)
FT×OFDI	0.000160 (1.381)	0.000363^*** (4.017)
OFDI	-0.000429 (-1.291)	-0.00101^*** (-4.495)
Control	Yes	Yes
Year fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Province fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Variance	0.417^*** (5.122)	0.410^*** (4.823)
Spatial rho	0.333^*** (3.742)	0.318^*** (3.370)
R²	0.968	0.968

变量	（1）	（2）
变量	制造业	非制造业
L.Develop	0.725^*** (8.875)	0.791^*** (7.677)
FT	0.0589 (0.331)	-0.151 (-0.858)
FT×OFDI	0.000240^** (2.439)	0.000208 (1.035)
OFDI	-0.000618^** (-2.050)	-0.000578 (-1.006)
Control	Yes	Yes
Year fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Province fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Variance	0.409^*** (4.908)	0.421^*** (5.101)
Spatial rho	0.288^*** (3.253)	0.374^*** (4.051)
R²	0.969	0.968

Fintech, Outward FDI and High-Quality Economic Development: Based on the Perspective of “Mutual Promotion of Dual Circulation”

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变量	（1）	（2）
变量	脱虚向实	金融稳定
L.Develop	0.645^*** (6.438)	0.654^*** (8.504)
Mechanism×OFDI×FT	0.000146^** (2.550)	0.00862^*** (2.647)
Mechanism×OFDI	-0.000626 (-0.694)	0.00937 (0.507)
Mechanism×FT	-0.0279 (-1.020)	-0.125 (-0.285)
Mechanism	0.119 (1.626)	-1.508 (-0.993)
FT	2.882 (1.132)	-0.0133 (-0.0213)
OFDI	0.0113 (0.157)	-0.0555^** (-2.188)
Control	Yes	Yes
Year fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Province fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Variance	0.372^*** (5.173)	0.364^*** (4.973)
Spatial rho	0.204^* (1.828)	0.326^*** (3.169)
R²	0.969	0.975

变量	（1）	（2）
变量	市场化水平	政策支持
L.Develop	0.661^*** (5.788)	0.620^*** (4.931)
Adjust×OFDI×FT	0.00149^** (2.330)	0.00230^*** (3.941)
Adjust×OFDI	-0.00813 (-1.094)	-0.00642^*** (-2.680)
Adjust×FT	-0.0318 (-0.548)	-0.0933 (-1.299)
Adjust	0.203 (1.005)	0.842^*** (2.897)
FT	0.223 (0.750)	0.555^** (2.365)
OFDI	0.0370 (0.569)	-0.00679 (-0.471)
Control	Yes	Yes
Year fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Province fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Variance	0.390^*** (4.823)	0.369^*** (4.873)
Spatial rho	0.212^** (2.142)	0.244^** (2.349)
R²	0.976	0.938

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