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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (7): 208-216.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.07.021

• Articles • Previous Articles    

Meta-Network Analysis Based Risk Evaluation Framework and Empirical Study of Major Infrastructure Construction Projects

WANG Tao1, GAO Shang-de2, LI Gui-jun2   

  1. 1. School of Public Affairs, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China;
    2. School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2017-12-14 Revised:2018-06-28 Online:2019-07-20 Published:2019-08-01

Abstract: The major infrastructure projects are characterized by their strategicness, integration and complexity, and these characteristics directly affect and cause high risk level. Risk identification, analysis and assessment in the early stage of these projects have significant influence on the project objectives, therefore it is necessary to establish an effective risk analysis framework of major infrastructure construction projects. Previous research has not fully recognized the risks in the major infrastructure construction projects, and lacked of consideration of associations between risks and the management of multi-objectives. Hence, the purpose of this research was to develop a comprehensive evaluation model for risk management of major infrastructure construction projects. First, the risk list is identified and a risk interaction model consisting of three hierarchies of project objectives, risk events, and risk factors is established. Then, networks between the three hierarchies are identified, and a meta-network of risk management is built based on meta-network analysis. Subsequently, the links in the networks and the risk levels of risk factors are quantified, and critical risk factors are identified. Meanwhile the scheme comparison and selection of the dam transportation on river hydropower station project in China is chosen as a case study to verify the applicability of this method.The results show that the most important risk factors are the misjudgment of decision-making, such as miscalculation of economic and social environment, and the environment-related factors, such as destruction of ecosystem. Besides, among the design schemes, navigation structures have the higher risk level than dam getting-over scheme, and as time goes on, the overall risk levels of these construction schemesare increasing. A risk evaluation method based on meta-network analysis, is propased the black box process of the occurrence mechanism of risks in major infrastructure projects is revealed, and knowledge for future project risk assessment is provided.

Key words: risk evaluation, meta-networks analysis, major infrastructure, case study

CLC Number: