Abstract: Due to the pressure of "carbon emission peak" target in 2030, it's extremely urged to industrial transform and upgrade and residential low carbon development. As a vital component in gross domestic product, household consumption will cause carbon emission that can give impetus to new round carbon emission in the future. Based on the international input-output tables, carbon emission of Chinese household consumption in 1995-2009 is calculated by using the method of non-competitive input-output analysis. Secondly, by using structural decomposition model, the influencing factors of carbon emission variation are analyzed and the effect of national emission reduction policy in 2007 is investigated. Furthermore, how consumption carbon emissions should develop until 2030 is forecasted by using regression model. Empirical results show that even though the carbon emission of household consumption causes a remarkable increasing trend on total national carbon emission during the study period, it still on the way of low carbon emission development under structural and factors influencing perspective. Especially, though analyzing the implementation effect of low carbon policy in 2007, it is found find that the policy doesn't fail to reduce emissions, it leads the carbon intensity, technology, consumption structure and popularity to an emission reduction way. Also, consumption scale per capita is the critical factor in carbon emission increasing which caused by household consumption. In conclusion, our emission reduction efforts do not decrease at the expense of residents' demand, which is necessary for our low carbon development during the special economy and consumption development phase.

Key words: carbon emission of household consumption, input-output technique, structural decomposition analysis, low carbon development