现阶段多种门诊挂号方式并存时，根据患者特性制定不同的等待时间策略尤为重要。本文考虑门诊挂号的三种渠道：直接排队挂号渠道、电话预约挂号渠道与O2O预约挂号渠道。在价格外生前提下，综合考虑患者的渠道偏好程度、时间敏感性与提前支付敏感性，基于效用理论构建患者的渠道选择模型。根据该模型推导得出不同市场条件下医院的需求，医院再据此制定患者的等待时间策略以达到利润最大化的目的。研究发现：当医院仅开通单一挂号渠道时，若患者的时间敏感度越大、渠道偏好程度越小，等待时间均越小；开通某两种挂号渠道时，还需考虑患者对两种渠道的偏好比例，偏好某种渠道的患者比例增加，选择该渠道的患者等待时间增加，选择另一渠道的患者等待时间减小；同时开通三种渠道时，最偏好某渠道的患者比例越大，选择该渠道的患者的等待时间也越大；在所有情况下，患者对提前支付的敏感度均不影响最优等待时间的制定。
Outpatient appointment scheduling is a hot and difficult problem in the field of medical operation and management. At present, many large hospitals in China open a variety of registration channels. In other words, there are multiple channels for patients to choose from, such as queueing in the outpatient hall, dialing the registration hotline or making an appointment through the Internet terminal. Therefore, when a variety of outpatient registration modes co-exist, it is particularly important to develop different waiting time strategies according to the characteristics of patients. In this paper, the waiting time is taken as a key factor affecting the behavior of patients' channel choice from a new perspective. First of all, under the assumption of the exogenous price, the channel selection model of patients is constructed based on the utility theory, which takes the patient's channel preference, time sensitivity and advance payment sensitivity into account. Then the demand distributions under different market conditions are derived from the channel selection model. On these bases, the hospital develops different waiting time strategies to achieve the purpose of maximizing profits. The results show that:(1) in all cases, the larger time sensitivity and the smaller channel preference lead to a shorter waiting time; (2) when there are two or three channels, the patient's preference for the channel will also have an impact on the results. The larger the proportion of patients who prefer a channel, the longer the waiting time for the patients who choose the channel; (3) besides, the patient's sensitivity to advance payment does not affect the optimal waiting time.This paper provides a guidance for hospitals to develop reasonable time strategies, which help to alleviate the conflict between doctors and patients and complete the rational allocation of medical resources.
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